I river trips vs a nit...and check/fold?

[deaders]

This guy was pretty nitty 18/12/1.5 only cbets 50%, we dont have any real history but my image is aggressive tag, 25/20ish at the time.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $105.05
Hero (SB): $208.95
BB: $101.30
UTG: $287.35
CO: $106.65

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8</font>, CO calls $8, BTN folds, Hero calls $7, BB folds

Flop: ($26) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks

Turn: ($26) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $18</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $45</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $27

River: ($116) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $66</font>

Preflop... meh CO and BB were both huge fish so I didnt mind seeing a multiway pot with them. Calling the turn raise seems standard yeah? His range for checking the flop then raising the turn must be pretty narrow, I havent seen him do anything to indicate that he could do it with air - he could possibly check sets on the flop because hes obviously not that great a player, and QJ is in there as well.

[Python49]

I think the decision in this hand really deals with what type of nit we're dealing with here. Some 18/14's are very aggro post flop and against those types I think they'd have a wider range for raising on the turn which would include some semi bluffs of their own... the diamonds/jack for OESD, as well as a T that's made TP with like ATo. I think aggro nits post flop would be aware that by them checking the flop and it checking through... that you'll be leading turn here sometimes to try to just steal the hand right there so they have more fold equity for their semi bluffs, and more value for their top pair. I think even a nit can raise up top pair here because of the draws that he could put you on for value or even against worse T's.

This nit has low cbet % and his overall aggression doesn't seem very high however. Against this type of nit... because of his low cbet %, that would make it seem as though he's capable of checking a flopped set/two pair/9T type hand that has now made two pair and that he's more likely to just be raising when he's confident he's ahead. I usually would assume by default that 18/14's on FTP are highly aggressive (i don't play there, just going by what i've seen) but this particular player seems more on the passive/tricky+trappy side so against him I think i'd be more inclined to fold. Against a more passive nit I don't think he raises the turn as much with a bare ten, nor with a semi bluff so his range on the turn I believe would be more weighted towards sets/two pairs/straights.. and the only two pair u'd be beating that could make some sense is 9T but thats kind of a stretch with him opening UTG. Against this player I don't mind a fold really... against most other nits/tagfish though at FTP though i'd call alot since I think they can be semi bluffing turn/raising for value with a Ten.

[shpanko]

why not just fold the turn? seems like we're only happy hitting our flush and we don't quite have the odds (though if we make up some on the river it's ok to call the turn). I think you'll see QJ and better hands than yours a lot, would he raise AT on the turn? What about leading river?

Folding turn seems ok to me tbh, maybe it's too nitty though

[deaders]

I know what you are saying but Im nearly directly priced in to call just for the flush.

AT is a hand I was wondering about, but my gut says he wouldnt raise that very often if at all on the turn.

[shpanko]

f he does raise AT I doubt he's going to v-bet the river, so I'd lead this river if you think AT is in his turn raising range.

[deaders]

I do doubt that he raises AT on the turn.

This is an interesting one - folding the turn could be argued but its the river that is tricky imo.

[dirtylobster]

I call turn for sure. River is tricky though. Bet/folding would be an option. This nits UTG opening range is pretty narrow. 44/77+ by the turn. I don't think he opens SC's except KQ+, maybe QJ sometimes but I doubt it. It really looks like he flopped/turned a set and rivered a boat. But I'm too much of a station to c/f river. On the other hand I don't see him value betting worse either. I'm lost.

EDIT: With his stats I don't see him having AT in his UTG opening range.

[gimmetheloot]

so you guys think he has 99 here?

i call this

[Syntec87]

yeah no real analysis here nobody folds this river Trust me you're good more than 25% or whatever amazing pot odds your looking at. I like the c/c tho.