A discussion with Corsakh - 3betting pairs from the blinds

[john voight]

n post
putting it into mathematical terms, instead of theoretical ideas is very useful for me.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
This thread points out one of the biggest reasons PokerTracker needs 3-bet and call 3-bet as stats. I can't wait for PokerTracker 3 to come out. I'm always lost in this situation, so I default to 3-betting loose players with a high FCB% and just flat calling tough players, looking to hit a set, see a cheap showdown, or take it away from him on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

get Holdem Manager beta version for free and you can get these stats now. http://www.holdemmanager.net/

fwiw my rr frequency with 99-JJ is about 70% lifetime but my sample sizes are probably too small to compare results between calling and re-raising.

[corsakh]

I'll sup up my thoughts one more time:

TT-99 plays better vs a loose preflop caller in 3bet pots than in raised pots because:

- it gives you initiative
- makes moneys preflop
- takes away caller's positional advanatage
- makes it hard for him to bluff represent an overcard on the flop
- gives you good implied profit from AA/KK
- makes later streets much easier to play

[inverted]

how does this change if villain pots flop and turn and regularly does so. So flop bet becomes $4 and turn bet becomes $12. This then becomes $18 which is cheaper than 3bettnig then betting the flop for around 1/2.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: We 3bet and cbet, he shoves

UTG (UTG): $50
MP (MP): $50
CO (CO): $50
BTN (BTN): $50
SB (SB): $50
Hero (BB): $50

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, MP calls.

Flop: ($12) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, MP raises to $44 and is All-In,

(34 for Hero to call into 66, pot odds 1.94:1, 65:34, need 34% to breakeven)

Net amount invested: $16 -$50
Net amount won: $?
Hand strength certainty: Average - Poor

Again, we play against a very wide range. He can have us crushed, or he can be making a move with any two, figuring that we are FOS. We need 34% equity to breakeven, but the point is, you are essentially paying your whole stack without ever really knowing what the hell you are up against. Remember this guys no maniac, but he can make moves. How do you know what he has? A very difficult decision, and a very expensive one - consider that if you fold here, you have invested $16 into a hand where you can still not be any surer that you were behind on the flop than you were preflop.

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You can be a lot surer that you are behind than you were preflop. How can you assume that his range for shoving over your bet on this flop = his range for calling your 3-bet pre?

Also, why do you have to bet this flop anyway?

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]


Hand 3: We 3bet and cbet, he calls

UTG (UTG): $50
MP (MP): $50
CO (CO): $50
BTN (BTN): $50
SB (SB): $50
Hero (BB): $50

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, MP calls.

Flop: ($12) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, MP Calls $10

Turn: ($32) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)

<font color="red">Hero?</font> (remaining stacks: $34)

Net amount invested: $16
Net amount won: $?
Hand strength certainty: Totally unknown

<font color="blue">Now this is a horrible situation to be in. We have a PSB left, are OOP, and have no idea in hell where we stand. If we check, any bet he makes is going to commit us. Do we bet again? Do we shove? Was he floating with a smaller pair, or does he have the nuts? If we check and he bets or shoves, is he bluffing? How often is he bluffing? Why does he float the flop?

You are literally having to commit your entire stack without knowing a single thing about whether you are behind or not. We have not defined villains hand at all, we are in a huge pot, and we are stuck. Remember, villain plays well - his range is totally polarised - nuts or nothing. Thats what you should be trying to do, polarise your range, because you can see how hard it is to play against.</font>

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???

[Profish2285]

I probably c-bet that flop with 99, but I make it like 7. The difference may not seem that big but now we knocked down our investment to 13 which is only 1 buck more than we would have following the other scenario. I think the extra dollar is more than made up for by initiative as well as the times villain folds pf. You can argue that we got to the turn though for cheaper but if we play the hand by 3 betting, we arent getting the turn too often anyway. Assuming we do, our hand is over and we have the same info for a buck more. However, we increased our chances of taking the hand down overall pf and on the flop by being aggressive. If we just c/c we are letting him draw to outs and we really dont know where we are. It might be me but I am nowhere close to comfortable calling two bets with 99 on a KTx flop. Just my 2 cents.

[Peter Harris]

Corsakh's first reply summed up my doubts about the post, fwiw. There's a debate worth pursuing. If I had breakfast maybe I would.