jj vs 4bet

[nazahl]

effective stacks - $200

you've both been pretty active, 3betting and what not. I think this was the first 4bet.

TAGgy btn opens to $7, no stats as I'm not at my comp. you 3bet JJ to $25, bb folds, he tanks for a while and makes it $60 and you do what exactly?

[cheer]

push.

[cooker3]

I push

[vetiver]

The three times I've been 4bet when holding JJ this month, I've stacked off 100BB every time, twice shoving and once calling in position. Results-orientation and bitterness makes me say fold. A shove either wins you $85 or loses you $125 (QQ+, AK calling range), so this taggish button needs to be 4betting non-premium hands >60% of the time.

This math could be totally foolish, borderline retarded. I'm not good at manual EV calculations to begin with.

[TheJokerIsWild]

I'm confused as to why the 2 other posters say push. What's the reasoning behind this? From my experience at NL200 and lower, players that 4 bet have AA or KK like 95% of the time, unless they are total fish.

[cooker3]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused as to why the 2 other posters say push. What's the reasoning behind this? From my experience at NL200 and lower, players that 4 bet have AA or KK like 95% of the time, unless they are total fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

In history the op says there has been a lot of 3 betting light. Now the villain open from the button, that can be any 2, hero 3 bets him, this has been standard so far. If Villain is anyway decent he knows that the hero can have pretty much atc so his 4 betting range would be quite wide hence I would push.

[TheJokerIsWild]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused as to why the 2 other posters say push. What's the reasoning behind this? From my experience at NL200 and lower, players that 4 bet have AA or KK like 95% of the time, unless they are total fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

In history the op says there has been a lot of 3 betting light. Now the villain open from the button, that can be any 2, hero 3 bets him, this has been standard so far. If Villain is anyway decent he knows that the hero can have pretty much atc so his 4 betting range would be quite wide hence I would push.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i get it. I wonder what happened the rest of the hand.

[Dire]

With the active history, I'd shove.

[jk3a]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


This is pretty simple really. There is 92 in the pot right now, you have 175 behind, and villain has 140 behind. Assume he's never bluffing and his entire range to 4bet is represented above. The EV of shoving is:

.36(92+140) + .64(-175) = -$28

If his calling range does not change, but he is 4bet bluffing sometimes and will fold to a shove, we need:

92(x%) + (1-x)(-28) = 0
120x = 28
x = 23%

villain to fold/be bluffing 23% of the time to make shoving neutral EV against above calling range.



However, if you add AQ to his calling/4betting range our equity becomes 42%. If you include TT, it's almost 47%.

.42(232) + .58(-175) = -$4...........and that's with no FE.




The point of this whole post is that depending on exact villain tendencies, it's likely marginal EV in either direction. Even QQ only has 40% equity against KK+,AK. So just be aware that these are very high variance spots and deal accordingly.

[Dire]

[ QUOTE ]
The point of this whole post is that depending on exact villain tendencies, it's likely marginal EV in either direction. Even QQ only has 40% equity against KK+,AK. So just be aware that these are very high variance spots and deal accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

The benefit of the image gained stacking with JJ preflop is not negligable, especially against a guy who seems pretty active preflop. IMO, that makes this a definite shove. It's going to be marginally -EV to somewhat profitable depending on his exact range. But either way, you get yummy image points for 'free'.