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Old 10-14-2007, 09:58 AM
brian64 brian64 is offline
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 67
Default PLo8 top set on flop with dangerous draws

Suppose you hold K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in MP. UTG limps, you limp, someone in LP limps, and the blinds call. Assume deep stacks, say 200 BB. 5 players see the flop:


Do you pot it? You want people to pay for their draws, but you are an underdog against someone holding A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Case 1
Suppose you do pot, someone behind you calls and UTG calls. A scare card comes on the turn and UTG pots it. Which scare cards do you continue with? 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] seems an obvious fold, but what about 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which costs you at least half the pot and makes a (fairly unlikely) straight possible?

Case 2
Now suppose the same flop, but this time when you raise the pot, someone behind you re-pots. In this case is it right to fold?
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Old 10-14-2007, 10:32 AM
franknagaijr franknagaijr is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Default Re: PLo8 top set on flop with dangerous draws

I often wait for the turn to get busy when there are so many cards that I would hate to see, but I could still catch a happy card on the turn and potentially take it down, or at least give players close to the wrong odds on their draws. This is one of those case. Therefore, my answers to questions 1 and 2 are purely theoretical.

Case 2 is more of a meta question than a pot-odds question. There are definitely some hands to which you are a 2 to 1 dog here, but if somebody specifically has NLD, NFD with an inside draw, you are 58/42, which is a lopsided coin flip. If you never choose to take lopsided coin flips when put to the test, observant players will begin to run over you. If you think you're playing a nut peddlar, it's probably a fold (Don't give NP's action anyhow, unless you have them crushed.) If you're playing against anybody else, I would strongly consider taking the wrong end of the coin flip.

Case 1: I would continue on a non-club turn 3 way if it didn't involve whiplash action 3 way, since there's a reasonable chance they're both on low, and possibly still looking for clubs. Position is a crucial component here. If you are sandwiched with a player waiting to act, this is a very tough spot. If you are first or last to act, the decision will be easier to see.
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