Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[Wolfram]

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Three somewhat common occurrences. I love making these quizzes and its been a little while since my last one. I'm going to sleep in a little bit so if this attracts any attention I'll post my thoughts. I'm sure when I have a date established with my book being published these types of (self congratulatory/promotionary) posts will increase in frequency. That said, feel free to argue with any play up to the decision but understand that the hand is played largely how I would've played it. Obviously I am not egotistical to assume that is the "only" way the hand can be played, or the optimal way, but just be content knowing that I play it that way. Since this is SSNL, we'll assume the game is NL200 6max.

#1. We're in the CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we (200, unknown image) raise to 8 pf. BB (245, you have a few notes/stats but just a typical player with somewhat loose TAG stats) defends his blind. Flop (~17 minus rake) comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], checked to us, we bet 12, BB check raises to 32 total. We call. Turn (80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain bets 40. What do we do?


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If you can't spot the nit in your first half hour at the table, then you are the nit.

Call for implied odds. If it turns out we're wrong and he won't pay off on the river, we're losing only $8 in EV by making this call.

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No, we're losing $44. 4.1:1 to hit, 40:120 to call, we need 40:164 for the call to be neutral EV, if we assume 0 implied odds and that we have 9 clean outs.

[Bacon Mmmm]

In hand #1, how often would we guess that we're up against Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and drawing dead? 2-4%? Is that enough to lean our decision?

[Mr_Donktastic]

1. I might 3 bet the flop vs some players. On the turn I like pushing or folding. He could be c/r the flop with anything. I don't like calling, seems pretty neutral at best? might as well get some FE too.

2. I would c/c the turn.

3. I may opt NOT to cbet here...but idk. As played I would probably just dump this.

[Wu36]

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In hand #1, how often would we guess that we're up against Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and drawing dead? 2-4%? Is that enough to lean our decision?

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This is one of the reasons I like a fold best here. Suited aces add all sorts of 2pr and pr+fd hands to his range. And 45 just got there so I don't think a semibluff (my first instinct) folds out enough hands vs a TAG (who isn't likely to have AT,AJ,AQ here).

Hand 2 I usually bomb the turn. If we check, usually c/f sometimes c/r. I'd fold to the 3b the first time.

3- shove, maybe fold I'll have to look it over once more.
yeah, shove looks good.

[David Nicoson]

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No, we're losing $44.


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Nope.
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4.1:1 to hit, 40:120 to call, we need 40:164 for the call to be neutral EV, if we assume 0 implied odds and that we have 9 clean outs.

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This part is true, but for some reason you're not giving us any equity in the extra pot size.

There's 160 in the pot after we call. We win 20% of the time. We have $32 in pot equity. We paid $40 for this equity, so we lost $8 in EV.

If we were getting 120 : 30, then we would be break-even. We're overpaying $10. But we still win 20% of the overpayment pot, so we don't lose all of that.

Try this thought experiment. There's 0 in the pot. We're a dog at 49.9% to win the pot. Our opponent bets a billion. We're wrong to call anything here, but we certainly don't lose a billion dollars by making this call.

[Casper05]

1) I'm folding, RIO at its finest. Are you really folding to a push if the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls?

2) If he 3-bets, I'm folding.
I'm normally firing again on the turn with 2 overcards and a gutshot, but that may be a leak because the turn didn't change anything. As played, I'm folding...again, RIO because we have no idea if our Q/A outs are live.

3) Again, RIO- we aren't sure all our straight outs are live with the FD.

I hate draws- I never hit- FTP sucks.

[Isura]

1 - Call.

2 - Check/fold.

3 - Shove.

That's how I'd play it anyways.

[Isura]

Also, hand 2 I wouldn't bet the flop. Is that bad?

[Acein8ter]

1) Call and pray for a spade... I'd most likely put him on Ax, so even if a K hits on the river, were toast. If he led more than 1/2 pot, I'd probably fold. (He did CR the flop,,,may put him on a set of 6's?)

2)Sub Q: I don't like AQo OOP... If he 3 bet, I'm 50/50 folding...
Lead for 30. He should know that if we play anything UTG, we have a hand... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If called, try to get to a cheap showdown on river if possible. (We have wopping 4 outs to da str8! + any A or Q may be goot enough here??? Gotta watch thte str8's)
Call the 25...

3) Were most likely behind here to Kx here. We have ~17% chance to pike our OESD on river. I'd fold here... (Don't be a fish!) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Casper05]

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Also, hand 2 I wouldn't bet the flop. Is that bad?

[/ QUOTE ]WE HAVE A GUTSHOT.

Really though, I'd bet it (but I c-bet too much prob), but more like 14-15.