200nl: AK never hits a pr when I 3 bet.

[SABR42]

Yeah, I get your point.

I just don't think he's folding very often. If he folded this time, he probably had worse than AK-high!

[A_C_Slater]

No one ever makes a pair when 3betting AK and it's probably due to the fact that when your opponents just call they probably have something like AK/AQ and they be stealin your "outs."

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I get your point.

I just don't think he's folding very often. If he folded this time, he probably had worse than AK-high!

[/ QUOTE ]

I was expecting for people to tell me this play is bad because last time I posted a very similar hand I got the same responses.

Thing is it seems everytime I make this play it works.

He thought for a looong time - used him time back - then folded, which makes me think he folded 88/99 or was thinking about calling with AK/AQ.

How often does this have to work to be +Ev anyway? Even if it was a break even play I owuld still want to make it because it would make me $ later.

IDK maybe I'm crazy.

[terp]

this isn't as bad as people say (because it works a decent % and our equity is almost always 20%+ if we get called), but it's sooooooo transparent and people should be looking this line up lighter than they do

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]

How often does this have to work to be +Ev anyway? Even if it was a break even play I owuld still want to make it because it would make me $ later.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we give him a range to call your preflop 3bet and bet the flop of 22+, AQs+, AQo+, KQs and assume he calls with 33+ only. This equates to betting 8.7% of hands and calling with 5.4% - so he calls 62% of the time you push.

If called, you are 22% vs. his calling range.

EV = (0.38 x 110) + (0.62 ((0.22 x 235) + (0.78 x -160)))= -$3

If we change his 3bet calling range to 10% instead of 8.6% and his push calling range to 33-66, 99+ (ie he folds 77 & 88), this turns the push into a +$6 play.

[skydancing8]

[ QUOTE ]
I had an exactly same hand and did this exact play on skydancing and sucked out on the river w a K, he showed 35h, and then cried about it for another 15 min.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the hand... once again great play concidering I NEVER make plays at you. Yes I'm still crying about it too as you put it. Also where was your "play" at?

POKERSTARS GAME #12226566578: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/09/23 - 15:13:07 (ET)
Table 'Kajaani II' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: $wish$lots$ ($208.35 in chips)
Seat 2: Klommel ($193 in chips)
Seat 3: blunty31 ($212.20 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($153.30 in chips)
Seat 5: mbl62000 ($200 in chips)
Seat 6: RNGMyAss ($172.80 in chips)
Seat 7: lombardo11 ($58 in chips)
Seat 8: donkydynamit ($117.05 in chips)
Seat 9: skydancing8 ($177 in chips)
inheritance: posts small blind $1
mbl62000: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to skydancing8 [7h 5h]
RNGMyAss: raises $4 to $6
lombardo11: folds
donkydynamit: folds
skydancing8: calls $6
$wish$lots$: folds
Klommel: folds
blunty31: raises $18 to $24
inheritance: folds
mbl62000: folds
RNGMyAss: calls $18
skydancing8: calls $18
*** FLOP *** [4s 5s 6d]
RNGMyAss: checks
skydancing8: checks
blunty31: bets $44
RNGMyAss: folds
skydancing8: raises $109 to $153 and is all-in
blunty31: calls $109
*** TURN *** [4s 5s 6d] [Jh]
*** RIVER *** [4s 5s 6d Jh] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
skydancing8: shows [7h 5h] (a pair of Fives)
blunty31: shows [Kc As] (a pair of Kings)
blunty31 collected $378 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $381 | Rake $3
Board [4s 5s 6d Jh Kh]
Seat 1: $wish$lots$ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Klommel folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: blunty31 (button) showed [Kc As] and won ($378) with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: inheritance (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: mbl62000 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: RNGMyAss folded on the Flop
Seat 7: lombardo11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: donkydynamit folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: skydancing8 showed [7h 5h] and lost with a pair of Fives