MTT Stud strategy

[chucky]

I had just opened up this table to watch some of the WCOOP 320 dollar stud tourney. Seat 3 is about 22th in chips with 25 people left. The difference between 25 and 24 is about 300 dollars in prize money. The people with less chips than seat 3 have between 10,000 and 15,000 in chips. Should seat 3 fold to a raise from probable flush draw if seat 3 has no blockers?

Tournament - 7 Card Stud High (5,000/10,000), Ante 1,000, Bring-In 1,500 (converter)

Seat 1: 227,315
Seat 2: 83,096
Seat 3: 24,498
Seat 4: 48,747
Seat 5: 58,798
Seat 6: 76,917

3rd Street - (1.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.50 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___raises___calls 3498 and is all-in
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___raises

[2461Badugi]

Nah, when he completes he's committing to the hand.

[Andy B]

A big pair is usually a very small dog against a live flush draw on fourth. Since there's a certain amount of money already in the pot, he's got odds to stay with him, even if he turns over the flush draw. Basically once he raises third, his money's going in.

[Lovesantiques]

I agree that he should go all in here, unless the $300 is that important. Remember that he won't always get it - the small stacks might hang in there while his stack, with an M of only 3 (does M apply to stud?) is very small as well.

Here's a chance to more than double up, and have a go at bigger money.

My question though concerns what Andy B posted above. "A big pair is usually a very small dog against a live flush draw on fourth."

I'm confused. Considering that, according to the tabls in the Super System book, a four flush is only 47.16% likely to complete, while a pair has at least some chance of improving to a boat, leads me to think that the pair has an advantage.

I am sure that you know more about stud than I do, so what am I missing here?

Thank you.

Lee

[roggles]

The flush can catch pairs and things as well. The flush is ahead, discounting dead cards

[The Worm]

Any chance I could get the hand # for this hand. I am curious if this was at my table or not.

[chucky]

The structure of payouts at PS and all MTTs pays by table late, except for final table. Even if hero doubles up he is still going to miss final table most of the time. As has been pointed out by others, a flush draw can hit two pair and other hands to win.

[chucky]

Hand #12254818886

[Lovesantiques]

Thanks for the information. I still have a lot to learn. :-/

Lee