To cbet or not to cbet

[hamnegger]

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I think a check here is a tactical mistake because you learn nothing of your position in the hand. Cheers

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you dont always have to put chips in the pot to recognize -ev situations.i think we are pissing into a strong wind here.

[kenny7]

I see your point,but the reason why I like the check here is that I really think you will be c/r a majority of the time.Also,if you cbet normal size,you are pretty much committed to the hand,while a small cbet is just sooooo weak,everytime I see people do that,I just have to raise,it's like a sickness,but they should be punished when they bet like 1/5 of the pot.

[River_Mitt]

Yes, I realize that your subject to easy check raise but …

-if SB emotionally raises the weak raise and BB has a hand they are now engaged
-if SB check raises with a hand and BB is on a flush draw or with hand they are now engaged
- same scenario in reverse if BB does the raising and SB is trapping

More than one way to get something out of a pot you don’t win.

Cheers

[BarryLyndon]

I saw this a little too late, hopefully, I have something new to add:

Looks like a pretty easy check here. It's a perfect spot, given your stack, for J10, JK, JQ, JA, any spade draw, set, or adventerous (and why not, given your c-bet range) 88 or 99 to CR here and protect his hand. Notice that Js comprise a large part of the ranges here.

The board is harmless enough for players to CR here without worrying about draws and what not. When you factor in that sometimes you are getting called as well, I think it's an easy check, because even if you bet 5000, you are not getting this pot enough to make the bet +EV. And, I can't empahsize enough, your stack size is very exploitable here.

Also, I obv. wasn't at the table, but if I feel BB is joining in a lot of pots (not sure how many), then I may try a different line here than raising 2.5X BB. Like folding EP or raising a little more than 3XBB. Though, I think fold > raise > call here (calling is just blah).

Barry

great post!

i guess this is a question of how well this board fits into our opponents "playing zone". Unfortunately this boards hits a whole lot of hands of both of their pf-ranges given the preflop action. The second problem is that we are a: gonna be semibluff/raised pretty often and b: that, if we are gonna get called by weaker draws or margnial made hands, firing one more barrel would be suicidal unless we hit one of the remaining 5´s.

Both of our opponents have so much equity here that they imo will not nearly fold ~43% of their range.

[kurtkatt]

i agree that this flop probably hits one of them a good number of times, but this flop isnt hitting them hard very often. if we think they are willing to stack of here with jx or 88-tt then obv we just give up the hand. but isnt it much more likely they will c/c and c/f a decent number of times on turn? further with our stack this is a pot we really wanna pick. giving up means our stealing will become very awkward, i think the the ev of picking up this pot via aggression is worth a lot mote than the times that we have to fold to a c/r and start pushbotting

[BarryLyndon]

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i agree that this flop probably hits one of them a good number of times, but this flop isnt hitting them hard very often. if we think they are willing to stack of here with jx or 88-tt then obv we just give up the hand. but isnt it much more likely they will c/c and c/f a decent number of times on turn? further with our stack this is a pot we really wanna pick. giving up means our stealing will become very awkward, i think the the ev of picking up this pot via aggression is worth a lot mote than the times that we have to fold to a c/r and start pushbotting

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both SB/BB won't stack off they have you covered by a lot.

Say you cont. bet 5K. I say you pick up the pot less than 33% of the time. Say you pick it up 25% of the time. The other 75% you are either getting CRed or called. What is your plan if a spade hits? a 4? an ace? Another J? Because now, on the turn, you'd have to pick up the pot more than 50% of the time to make this profitable, that is assuming you have the gaul to fire another bullet (psychology goes into this, because despite our theory plans, we now put our tourney lives on the line with a mid pair on what could very well be a bluff).

The whole thing looks like ass, and the more I think about it, the more I like a fold preflop. However, I don't care if my stack size is awkard because I still have enough to 3-bet for FE and you're going to have to face an awkard stack at one point or another in a tournament.

Barry

[Supesimmo]

I like a delayed C-bet here, on any non Ace/non spade turn card...

I don't really like this board texture following two calls; if i flopped flush draw/TP/combo draw/set in BB/SB here then I'd probably check/raise so taking the free card and re-evaluating is a nice cheap option IMO

[kurtkatt]

right, its not a they stacking off, wrong word, double us then.

my plan is to push any non spade/nonJ turn.

i put out a lot more thought in the previous post, actually i think i got the potsize wrong, meaning a 2/3 bet on flop wont be 6500ish and more like 8k, thats kinda bad i think, so that will probably leave us with to small a stack on turn to get any folds??!!

[tomek322]

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raise more preflop build flop with big hands not 55.

check fold if you don't improve. c-betting is not profitable.

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rediculous, this late in the tourney your raise is fine assuming you are being concistant.

To bet or not to bet is more of a game specific. You are facing a solid and eradic player. I would be prone to just checking.