Odd Quiz, introductory concepts pt. 2.

[Unknown Soldier]

im never attempting a bluff in hand 2 the call is purely to his our hand, unless runner runner spades come.

[D.L.M.]

hand 1, on flop raise to as much as you think hell call with implied odds that is mathemaically profitable for you on all streets. always ovbiously bet enough so that he cant call with his flush and ace outs. when he hits you fold right away so as long as you deny immediate pot odds its ok.

hand two i fold. you know what you are drawing at and its a [censored] draw that has a disgusting scare card. fold right away. if you hit you ten hell get spooked and you probably dont have impieds to draw to a 3 outer.

[gimmetheloot]

1A) Call.
1B) His hand is 50/50 with ours basically and the dead money in the pot isnt really enough to make raising the flop and calling his shove very profitable, where-as waiting until he has much smaller turn equity is, plus we save our stack when he hits.
1c) im betting cards that miss his hand. prop like, 85% of po
1D) gonna make a 2.5x raise when he blanks, doubt he calls a shove.

2a) just gonna fold, i might try to call and make some plays on spades and continue on river regardless, especially if the board gets scarier for him
2B) If i call im checking behind all turns but tens and just giving up. Im much more inclined to bluff raise a spade than I am to just bluff bet it.
2C) spades and tens im raising, i might call queens and jacks, dunno the odds atm off the top, and try to bluff some rivers (read spades and 4 str8's), bet tens, and if we backdoor a str8 bet them too.

and as always, these depend on villains.

[BobboFitos]

i posted answers in part 1. ill do part 2 tomorrow, hopefully a tiny bit more work goes in for people on this one.

[grando]

lol at calling hand 2 to bluff later

double lol at anyone folding 2 pair at 200NL

[BobboFitos]

This received less love then part 1. Part 1 the "introductory concept" is basically if you don't have an edge, you rarely want to put money into the pot. (The "if" applies alot, and I mean in relation to putting money into the pot against "big" hands, or atleast somewhat tough to fold hands) Part 2 the concept is actually "if you have an edge, which is somewhat guaranteed later in the hand, you're a fool to pass it up."

I'll elaborate.

In Hand 1, again on the flop, we know our equity is 55/45 vs his hand, so he is quite live, although we have the best hand. Getting all in on the flop is obviously OK, since we will benefit ~33$ in EV every time that happens. However, especially knowing his hand, we're looking for the most ideal line. (Somewhat subset Q, but what is your standard play in this spot? I'd repop preflop alot, but barring that just calling with position is typically the ABC correct move)

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a. Do you call or raise?

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Hopefully I answered this; most people would shove if raised, and although we're never folding, this will likely yield the smallest EV (although still pos). Again though, like in part 1, we know what hits him; on the turn our equity will be ~73%, 68%, or 0%/9%) and given his lead, we'll have 45 in the pot and 229 behind.

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b. Why?

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Answering that.

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c. If you call and he checks the turn, what's our play? (List possible turn cards and ensuing plays)

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If we fall behind, we check behind and do NOT put any money into the pot (obviously!) unless we improve. (Ala runner runner T/T when the T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit the turn, or A on turn and a K on river) If we're ahead, we bet.

Alot of people said they would c/r on the turn, so obviously being able to induce that type of mistake would be huge. But if we think they're check calling, we want to make a bet that is incorrect in them calling; remember, they have zero implied odds, since we're never paying off behind on the river, so we could give "cleaner" odds to them.

Of course, we want to maximize their mistake, so really the "right" answer is to bet any amount they'd be willing to call. (The minimum bet for us to make is roughly 26.5, pretty easy how to figure that out, but I'll leave the math out of the answer)

I'd probably bet 30.

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d. If you call and he bets 30 on the turn, what's our play? (List possible turn cards and ensuing plays)

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Ok! Now we get to a more interesting question. Given we know villain is charging himself a bad price (slight -EV if he never gets a fold) should we raise now or let him bluff?

Again, if we were to raise, we'd want to encourage a bad call. 105 in there given a call, we need to deny 27% equity, again minimum raise for him making a mistake is 62 more, for a raise of 92 total. If I raised I'd probably make it 100 total or so.

So, again, should we call or raise? interestingly this is VERY opponent dependent, because the ability to play the river perfectly (and thereby yield 100% rate of return on a bet) is fairly enticing, and playing passively (calling down) typically does induce these bluffs. This goes back to bluff frequency, and I can't really answer this. So; I'll leave this as the interesting question of #1, that either answer can be defended.

For question 2, some people thought we were planning on making a bluff some time later in the hand. NO WAY EVER!!! If I dont think people fold top pair, when someone flops two pair, why the hell would they fold? No, no, no.

However...

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a. Do you call or fold?

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This is a call! In fact, when you know what someone has, the more apt you can make loose calls in position. A quick digression, typically this explains why when you're playing straight forward tight players it's more correct to play looser postflop, generally because it's easier to identify their hand range (and subsequent equity) and thus extract or minimize losses accordingly.

So, again, you have hidden equity, roughly 22%, and have a real chance to "break" them - this isnt fishy implied odds preflop where you're taking a flier, they have a legit big hand here and you KNOW that they have it! The call on the flop is not debatable.

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b. Why?

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Someone suggested playing for best hand value alone; we will do just that. For near pot on the flop we're technically drawing to the T or 9 (6 outs) to put us in a situation where opponent has roughly 5% equity (or with the 9, they have some split equity too). If we don't get anymore money after that, we're making a mistake. (If opponent plays perfectly) But again, this is a ridiculous notion; afterall, we're the one seeing the hands =)

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c. If you call and he checks the turn, what's our play? (List possible turn cards and ensuing plays)

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Again, if we improve, we bet, enough to price him out (or that he'll call incorrectly) If villain weirdly checks the T, we're bombing away. They probably will check the 9 but wont go away, it's another bet. If we don't improve, we check. We're just not trying to bluff; it's a noble notion to bluff a spade, but vs two pair you're generally getting check called on the turn, and then forced to bluff again on the river (Which may work) but really, I'd rather check, and the only time I'd consider a bluff is if the river puts 4 spades up there.

So again, pretty straightforward.

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d. If you call and he bets 30 on the turn, what's our play? (List possible turn cards and ensuing plays)

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Here, if we don't improve, we fold. If we do (to pickup a straightdraw) we typically must call, or raise if we hit the ten.

Getting tired / headache, more to expound, but i think i'll leave it here.