Open up pre-flop?

[cheburashka]

OK, so I’m kind of a statistics nerd, which is one reason why I enjoy this game, despite my persistent inability to get my ROI above zero (getting close, though!)

One thought I’ve had is that I’m just not playing enough hands to create situations where I can (1) create opportunities on lucky flops, as I see others do so often, and (2) get more action on hands where I have a big edge. I’m getting a bit more confident in my post-flop play, so this may be a good time to open up a bit.

I thought quite a bit about my pre-flop range, and it is approximately as follows:

EP (10% of hands)
Raise: JJ+, AQ+, AJs, KQs
Raise/Limp 50/50: 77-TT, JTs, T9s
Usualy limp: 22-66

MP (16% of hands)
Raise: 66+, AT+, A7-9s, KQ, SCs T9-QJ
Raise/Limp 50/50: SCs 65-98, KJ, QTs
Usually limp: 22-44, A2-6s

LP (22% of hands)
Raise: 22+, Axs, A8o+, KQ, KJ, KT, SCs 65-QJ, Suited one-gappers 97-QT (I don’t think I ever open-limp from LP, but I will often call rather than re-raise with a lot of this range.)

Now there are a lot of caveats to this, obviously—whether I’m opening or not, whether there are raisers or limpers in there, who the raisers/limpers are, stack sizes, stage of the tournament, etc.

But overall, this range says that I should be playing about 16% of pots, and this seems to be about the case. My pokertracker stats over 12k hands shows me at 19/12, but (1) I’ve tightened up a bit since the beginning, and (2) I have about 30% VPIP from the SB due to limps with great pot odds. Positionally, I play about twice as many hands from late position as early position, so that is in line.

In an earlier post, Sherman intimated that his stats are wider than this. And according to my pokertracker, I don’t see anyone with a decent amount of hands who is as tight as I am. On the other hand, I’ve been watching a bunch of PXF histories (betgo, bond, the alex, willd, ronfezbuddy), and I almost always correctly guess their pre-flop decisions (the only exception is Nath).

So my question is: What other hands should/could/might I be opening? What should be the priorities? Should I try some non-suited connectors (JTo, T9o, 98o)? Maybe some weaker Aces or Kings?

Alternatively, is there anything in my range that is terrible? I need to know!

Waddaya think?

[Sherman]

In the CO and on the button (and when I say on the CO and on the button I literally mean only those two positions) I am capable of raising and do raise with any two cards, especially when stacks are deep and especially when it is folded to me.

I am absolutely raising any K or A if it is folded to me in these positions. I also raise most Q's (maybe like Q5+), some J's (J8o+,J6s+). In all honesty, it is easier to tell you what I am folding:

23,24,25,34o,35o. That's pretty much it. I am bumping it with anything else.

I will also do this occasionally with a limper or two in front. Basically, I raise a ton in position. Why? Because I have position and it is oh so powerful, especially when stacks are deep. I don't mind getting into tricky spots when I have position against bad players.

Position allows me to control the pot size meaning that when I want big bets to go in, they go in. When I don't, they don't go in. And if a big bet does go in that I don't want to go in, I fold b/c I have position, it costs me nothing.

Basically, in position I am playing for the villain's stack and he is not playing for mine. This is the sole reason my stats "seem" more laggy than I actually play. Because I play so many damn hands in position.

Sherman

[Dunkman]

Yeah what Sherm said. Basically there's so many other factors that go into what I'm raising besides my cards that a range of hands is almost useless. My position for the hand, the stage of the tournament, my stack size, the stack sizes of my opponents, and what kind of opponents I'm up against can all be more important than my cards in many instances.