*** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***

Nonfiction · #1 11-30-2007, 02:15 AM

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donk teaser of Packers +13 and o45 for a unit.

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ship ship imo

Benny Foldem · #2 11-30-2007, 02:47 AM

so much for my 100 bucks...

cheesehead 4 life
benny

sethseth · #3 11-30-2007, 03:49 AM

I loaded up on Dallas -3 -125 second half and I think this was wildly +ev. It was so obvious after the first half that
a) Dallas pass rush was ruining GB and nearly sacking the QB half the time
b) Kampman and GB's defensive line were not bringing pressure
c) TO was thrashing Harris
I did not predict any of these pregame, but I am happy that I recognized the value at halftime. I think Dallas covers this line about 2/3 of the time second half. hell if TO does anything but lateral the ball to GB, the bet doesn't lose, and I think GB was lucky to string together that one TD drive in the 2nd. plays that +ev don't come around that often, I'll bet more units next time.

Lori · #4 11-30-2007, 04:32 PM

Be very wary about games changing at halftime. Teams have time to re-evaluate things, the team in front tends to worry more about killing time than scoring points in the 4Q, that kind of thing. It's not just a case of "Zomg they're winning by 20 and they're +3".

I'm not going to go as far as to say you're doing it wrong, just be sure that you consider how team tactics will change as well as the things you mentioned in this one.