400 NL: Deep stack committed? Seems ridiculous but should I c/f river?

[AllTheCheese]

30 hands on Villain so he's reasonably unknown. However, it should be noted that he called three preflop raises and folded to exactly 0 c-bets. Hence my c/c on the flop. He doubled up on one of them with topset (which he played pretty gayly) against some other dude who had an overpair, and this is why he has a big stack.

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $438
UTG+1: $489.60
UTG+2: $406
Hero (MP1): $984.60
MP2: $96
CO: $749.60
BTN: $332.90
SB: $447.75
BB: $394

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $16</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls $16, 3 folds

<font color="blue"> Sort of a laggy preflop raise, but semi-standard for me. I fold half and raise half.</font>

Flop: ($38) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $16</font>, Hero calls $16

<font color="blue"> As I said, I thought my FE was pretty minimal and given the stacks I thought it was okay to c/c. Any criticims of this are welcome. </font>

Turn: ($70) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $55</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $110</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $400</font>, CO calls $290

<font color="blue"> Obviously a super gin turn card for me. Idk if my lead was good, I think he checks behind a lot on this board and I didn't want to let him off the hook if he had AK, KJ, or spades. I raise to $400 instead of just shoving. It's hard to explain my reasoning, but I feel like people puss out more for a full shove than for one of these. Again, feel free to flame if you think I deserve it.</font>


River: ($870) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero shoves?</font>

<font color="blue"> Probably the second-most depressing card in the deck for me (Queen being the worst IMO). At this point, I have about 36% of the pot behind. I'm pretty sure he got there, but I'm wondering why wouldn't he have just shoved the turn if he had a set. He shouldn't be boat mining, as I gave him bad odds. I thought KQ was possible, or like overplaying some stupid hand. As I said he was unknown. Shove correct? </font>

It's pretty obvious I lost this hand, so I might just be convincing myself that I played it badly because of that.

[iponnet]

hero smooth calls turn raise, c/c river

you are playing kind of deep, even donks catch hands

[mattaasen]

yeah its a bad card but i dont think im folding.................if he filled up oh well shove get the money in and hope he pays off folding here is bad and i doubt he bluffs if u check with a busted draw so just shove it in his face hope he has kq

as for smooth calling or whatever the donk said before me? i want what he is smoking.....cause thats horrible!!!!.....just calling his min raise this deep with two flush draws on such a coordinated board against a donk who seems like a station out of position is f'n AWFUL

i think id probably check raise turn , but your lead is not bad at all either

im raising turn 100 percent of time here..... u played it fine and id pay him off if he beat u just too much in the pot

[john voight]

lol i play NL30 and I think the guy who said smooth turn and then c/c river is mildy retarded.

[Bluegrassplayer]

Well I think he's right about c/c the river, I like your bet on the turn though. I don't think I can get away from this one. I think it's possible that he overplays a/k or k/q here.

[DjSkyy]

I think you played it fine, and should shove the river.

[iponnet]

we cant c/c river if we raise his turn raise, because we will be c/c the rest of our stack. if villan is a moron he may verywell be slowplaying something like AJ/88.

and there is a reason why you play NL30 you dumbnooob

[AllTheCheese]

Why would we not want to pump the turn? We have the nuts drawing to the nuts, effectively. He doesn't have AJ. There's really no reason why he would small-bet the flop with AJ when he could

a) Take a free card (IMO far and away the most likely thing an unknown would do if he had AJ)
b) Make a bigger bluff because he only has Ace high

The only reason to call turn is if you think we can maximize value this way. IMO this is not the case if we put Villain on sets and two pair.

[iponnet]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would we not want to pump the turn? We have the nuts drawing to the nuts, effectively. He doesn't have AJ. There's really no reason why he would small-bet the flop with AJ when he could

a) Take a free card (IMO far and away the most likely thing an unknown would do if he had AJ)
b) Make a bigger bluff because he only has Ace high

The only reason to call turn is if you think we can maximize value this way. IMO this is not the case if we put Villain on sets and two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right but I would make an exception since we are playing deep, if we had 100bb your play above is standard.

[case3]

[ QUOTE ]
He shouldn't be boat mining, as I gave him bad odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe his odds are not so bad to try and fill up. If you are shoving a T river then I assume you are also shoving any board pairing card.

He pays 290 to get 1180 needing to hit 24% of the time.
-TT is 20~23%
-88 is about 20%
-KT is 7~10%

These odds are enough for most players and plenty for all donks.

[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't have AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ruling out AJ for an unknown player is a clear mistake. AJ of spades has to be in his range here, as well as all other AJ's. When a player min-raises this turn with deep stacks it is often done without fear of exposing himself to a big re-raise. This is a made hand then and those are sets, the J9 chop, and AJ.

With these two points then I don't think a turn raise is automatic. Making it 400 gives him a perfect spot to bust J9 with AJ and the mistake made by trying to fill up is small.

Getting it in on the turn would only show real value if our opponent would do so with 2-pair which I think is questionable or the J9 chop and we catch a freeroll.

Taking this line you can then call river bets on paired boards to whatever amount you are comfortable with, and call or bet/fold blanks.

AS PLAYED on the river I guess I'm corrupted since I know you lost the hand(?) and I don't imagine anyone calling the turn with AJ. Anyway, on the river the pot would be 870 and villain has 318 left so if it get in a win is needed about 25%, this could be tough.

I imagine if we check the villain shoves all fulls. If we shove he calls all fulls. I don't think he shoves with a worse hand than ours if checked to, perhaps a small chance, but not enough to try and catch a bluff. If he stills has J9 here I imagine it gets checked most of the time as well. The river is fine to check and then feel sad and fold.