Flop Decision - Omaha H/L

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I am actually curious for Buzz's calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]Green - Is this a limit game or a pot limit game?

Do you more or less automatically raise when you enter the action from the button with two folds in front of you? In other words do SB and BB more or less expect you to raise when you enter the action under these circumstances?

What is SB's range of hands to just call your raise? What is BB's range of hands to just call a raise after SB has also called? In other words, do they both have better than random cards (aside from really horrid starters like quads and trips). Do they both probably have low draws to call the raise? Or not?

I don't think you have a very good starting hand for the high/low game. But I'd certainly play it here, and the pre-flop raise here, hoping to steal the blinds or at least get one-on-one with position against one of the blinds seems reasonable. It's not a very good starting hand because it doesn't have any low possibility and the high is not great. However, with the right flop, your hand can suddenly become very strong. (But that's true of any hand).

That's not what happened for this particular flop. You have no pairs and a heart draw plus an inside straight draw, a total of eleven outs, but eight of them are not for the whole pot. You also have some back-door straight draws.

We can simulate for this particular hand after this particular flop, and find out what the hand ends up making. Here it is for the first flop:<ul type="square">32.9% flush
30.0% one pair
13.3% two pairs
12.9% straight
09.1% bust
01.8% trips[/list]
And here it is for the second flop:<ul type="square">36.1% one pair
32.9% flush
12.8% bust
08.6% two pairs
07.8% straight
01.8% trips[/list]
However, there is no way of knowing how often any of those are expected to win, lose or tie against these two blinds. If you hadn't raised, I'd simulate against two random hands held by non-folding opponents, and go from there. But your pre-flop raise changes that. Since the two blinds called your raise I don't think they have random hands. (I simulated against one blank hand, 100,000 runs, just to see what your hand ends up making.

I could simulate for various opponent profiles, but I don't know what opponent profiles to use. And the hands folded also have a bearing. I don't know what opponent profiles to use for the two opponents who folded before the action got to Hero on the first betting round.

Kind of interesting to note the differences when you replace the inside straight draw card with the back-door eye-hole straight draw. No change in the flush or trips (of course) but everything else is a bit different.

Buzz

[RobNottsUk]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting thoughts. Don't i have 2 guaranteed scoop outs. K or 10 of hearts?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, thanks for correction.

Though I didn't want to focus on what hands would pay off, you're in a dilemma where you would like 1 of those outs to be in opponents hand.

Some of the time Kh Xh is going to be in the flop bettor, or the callers hand, making your hand even longer a shot.

Discounting your outs, and as someone else pointed out even with the perfect Th you can lose 1/2 pot on river (to a low) or on a bad day all of it, if the board pairs.


Now I've read the later responses and results.

The question doesn't give quite enough info, about the flop bettor, and the caller to really make an accurate decision. However, even if the bettor and caller are loose players, unless you think the turn is likely to be checked; you won't be very wrong to fold.

[green100b]

Sorry all - was out yesterday. The game originally was one where any raise pre-flop was called by these blinds. But after a successful couple of hours, (and my folds on the button), they began to fold their blinds to my raises on occassion. They were calling me with any 2 wheel cards. The initial attempt was to steal blinds. When that didnt work i have to decide based on flop. With the action on the flop i felt like i was likely drawing for half so i folded.