draw against trips

[roger1111]

blinds 1/2 full ring

villain (200) EP TT**
hero (175) LP J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

flop 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

sb ch bb ch villain pots $12 folded to hero

what does hero do and why

[Troll_Inc]

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what does hero do and why?


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What will the villain do if you raise full pot vs min pot raise vs just call.

You are very nearly a coinflip in this hand on the flop while the pot is small:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

I would be inclined to increase the pot size and play the hand in way that the villain would most likely pay me off if my hand improves on the turn.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

(I'm going to guess that you want to make him think that you have a lower set or TTP, then when a straight comes you kick him in the nuts and take his whole stack.)

[iggymcfly]

Well, if we absolutely knew for a fact that villian had top set, we'd probably call so that we could fold to board pairing turns while still getting lots of chips in when we hit out straight.

However, when we're actually playing, we don't have that infornmation so we should definitely repot this for fold equity/metagame/disguising our hand.

[Troll_Inc]

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However, when we're actually playing, we don't have that infornmation so we should definitely repot this for fold equity/metagame/disguising our hand.

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Well, we never know for sure; however we all play against opponents who pretty much tell you what they have. For example, villain will only lead out at pot with full size pot bet when he has the stone cold nuts? Maybe that's what the OP meant?

[grizy]

what are stack sizes? against very large stacks I'd be inclined to raise so I could value bet more heavily on the turn.

Against small stacks I'd raise anyway... chances are we'd be pot committed anyway.

[roger1111]

My read on villain says he has TT and very possibly with some of my outs. Simulator says I'm only 46.69% so why get involved. Troll, if I repot flop and he repots then I lose in the long run. I'm new to Omaha but still only like raising as a % favourite to a made hand. Is this thinking totally off?

[roger1111]

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what are stack sizes? against very large stacks I'd be inclined to raise so I could value bet more heavily on the turn.

Against small stacks I'd raise anyway... chances are we'd be pot committed anyway.

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villain $200
hero $175

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
My read on villain says he has TT and very possibly with some of my outs. Simulator says I'm only 46.69% so why get involved. Troll, if I repot flop and he repots then I lose in the long run. I'm new to Omaha but still only like raising as a % favourite to a made hand. Is this thinking totally off?

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[It'd be really funny if I was getting trolled here, but.....]

1. I'd say at least 10% of the time he won't have TT** exactly, more like this range (http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...mp;h4=&h5=), so overall you are probably a coinflip against his range if you just got it all in right there. Also a basic PLO concept - it's possible that the "drawing" hand is favored over the "made" hand.

2. While the best choice based on pot odds vs equity is to call, the problem with that is that if you just call and you hit your straight he might just fold and you won't lose as much money.

3. Raising. So the idea with raising (combines 1 and 2) is that you really aren't a favorite or dog, so by raising you aren't making a mistake. And by raising you could disguise your hand enough so that if a straight hits, then he is more likely to make a HUGE mistake on the turn. I'll let you do the math on how much to raise the pot, knowing that there's a very good chance that he will repot it.

[roger1111]

I can't get my head round raising. If I raise and then he reraises he can no longer make a huge mistake on the turn. If he has TT 90% of the time then he must repot 90% of the time on that board. Surely for this to be +EV he must fold to a repot some of the time. My table image also should tell him I'm not raising with mid trips (is this a mistake by me, should I ever raise with that).

With the sb and bb still to act can't I just call hoping one of them comes along for the ride and if it was HU is there no folding this hand. Frankly with this hand I prefer to be first in with the pot bet.

[iggymcfly]

You must play a weird brand of Omaha. I don't think I've ever played with a single player that I could put squarely on top set after betting the pot on the flop. What does he do with middle set here? Check/call? Check/fold? Against a typical player, I'd put them on a range of two pair, a set, a wrap, occasionally an open-ender, and occasionally an overpair/air. Against that range, I'd repot with any set or any wrap.

Now I understand if you can narrow that range down somewhat against this player, maybe even to any set, but I don't see how you can say that he absolutely has top set here. However, if you can do that, then this is an easy call. You have an advantage over top set by calling with the wrap here since when he hits his good cards (board pairs), you'll be able to fold, but when you hit your good cards (straight cards), he'll still be calling you.

Now, the other thing mentioned (that he might check/fold top set on the turn when a straight card hits), is this really possible? What kind of ridiculous uber-nits are you playing with? Most of my opponents will never lay down any set here and no one check/folds top set. If your opponents really are as nitty as you describe, you need to be making a lot of light calls and stealing pots like crazy on every street.