50NL - odds to call, but should I repop?

[Jimmy Vulmer]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($65.25)
Button ($50)
SB ($50.43)
BB ($71.10)
UTG ($23.72)
MP ($44.38)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($4.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($16.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $6</font>, Hero ?


Is this a spot where I should normally just call given the odds, or should I repop hoping a fold, but know I have enough equity if all the money goes in?

If I could get a fold 2/3 times here, I figure rr to be more profitable then just calling, assuming I'll average a $10 return on my river bet (my money card is a big scare card and assume a c/fold more then 50% of the time)

[Nick C]

Whether he's intending to or not, Villain is kind of representing a monster with his trappy line. And if he in fact has two pair or better, you probably have better implied odds than you think.

But maybe he's genuinely weak instead of just kind of pretending to be. In that case your implied odds suck unless you and Villain are sharing some "outs" (like, say, if he has 8h6h).

So that's the dilemma. If Villain is strong and won't fold, then popping the turn is horrible, but if he's weak, then, sure, why not pop it. I mean, if his hand is really marginal, you could have 18(!) outs. (And there is, of course, even some small chance you're currently ahead.)

Anyway, I probably would just call. Meanwhile, re-popping the flop with overs and a flush draw is also a consideration, but I don't think I'd do it versus a min-checkraise on this board.

[mephisto]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a spot where I should normally just call given the odds, or should I repop hoping a call

[/ QUOTE ]

Having overs + NFD plays very well vs an overpair (47.5% vs KK etc and you are a favorite vs QQ). Vs. 2 pair you still have 34% equity, and vs top set you are 26%.

4 bet his mini raise and be happy when you get it in.

[teh_minbet_pokr]

i think the flop is the spot to put in a big raise if you are looking for a fold, min raise is strength often, but it is also a draw trying to see turn and river for a cheap price a lot of times at this limit. i also dont think a set is min raising on a dangerous board like this.

also, in my experience, a lot of terrible villains will play any FD in this manner and are willing to go broke with it.

as played i think you should just call the turn with the intention of vbetting when you hit the flush and seriously thinking about making a big bluff at any scare cards(diamond, str8 card)

fwiw i try to get it all in on this flop everytime because we have so much equity and even when they have the set(which i dont think is that often) we arent in *terrible* shape

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a spot where I should normally just call given the odds, or should I repop hoping a call

[/ QUOTE ]

Having overs + NFD plays very well vs an overpair (47.5% vs KK etc and you are a favorite vs QQ). Vs. 2 pair you still have 34% equity, and vs top set you are 26%.

4 bet his mini raise and be happy when you get it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 4-betting Villain's flop min-checkraise is an option, but I think we're being super-optimistic about his range if we're hoping for a call.

Aside from lower flush draws, I can't think of any non-bluff hands we'd want Villain to call with. The pot's far from empty.

[teh_minbet_pokr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a spot where I should normally just call given the odds, or should I repop hoping a call

[/ QUOTE ]

Having overs + NFD plays very well vs an overpair (47.5% vs KK etc and you are a favorite vs QQ). Vs. 2 pair you still have 34% equity, and vs top set you are 26%.

4 bet his mini raise and be happy when you get it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 4-betting Villain's flop min-checkraise is an option, but I think we're being super-optimistic about his range if we're hoping for a call.

Aside from lower flush draws, I can't think of any non-bluff hands we'd want Villain to call with. The pot's far from empty.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, but i think other flush draws are a large enough part of villains range for this to be a +EV spot for a big 4bet/getting all in.

min raising this flop with any made hand(set, 2pair, str8, overpair) is extremely bad imo, so it is tough for me to put them on such a hand.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
min raising this flop with any made hand(set, 2pair, str8, overpair) is extremely bad imo, so it is tough for me to put them on such a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

But, damn, it's like a donk-standard slowplay!

The games have seemed to me to be getting bluffier in recent months (on Stars, anyway), but at the same time I'm still wary when I get flop min-checkraised. It's not always a monster, of course, and perhaps it isn't even usually one, but it sure as hell is a decent chunk of the time.

[mephisto]

On Prima the mini-checkraise is a mix between I have the nuts and a blocker/feeler bet.

My main point is that even if you are called, your equity is pretty strong even vs the worst case scenario of hands. And the villain doesn't necessarily have to have a monster in order to mini-checkraise.

[Nick C]

By the way, regarding the flop 4-bet option, I should have mentioned earlier that one advantage of such a play is that there are some players who will fold marginal made hands but chase with a draw -- which is exactly the result we want in this hand versus a range of pair or flush draw!

However, in this particular instance, there are so many pair + draw hands villain could have (in addition to, say, 87, T9 and sets) that I worry about our folding equity versus the pair hands.

[teh_minbet_pokr]

i think any relevant reads (stats, prior history, anything you've noticed so far) on the villain are of significant importance for interpreting range here.