jordin bottom 3? buy/sell?

[smbruin22]

dialidol has jordin as 3rd bottom, decent room to both 4th and 2nd.

if she is in bottom 3, do you think it's good buying or selling opportunity? assuming shares falls a few points.

or will AI producers massage the votes slightly or cut it off at bottom 2?... can't figure out if being in bottom 3 helps or hurts. i actually think it helps. EDIT: assuming you survive that incidence.

[thing85]

Man, you are putting way too much stock in the DI numbers right now. Voting has only been open for 45 minutes and isn't even open yet on the West coast. Furthermore, the MOE is such that everyone except Melinda could be in the B3.

Your post is entirely too panicky and "jumping the gun." I doubt Jordin will actually be B3, so don't worry about it.

[smbruin22]

i lost a bigger response i typed out...

everyone mentions MOE, but how many people have left in recent weeks that weren't near the bottom?.... i think DI's MOE are way too tight, partly because they don't want to look stupid. i'd just look at the scores and the earlier scores have been best recently...... i think the best returns (without tying up money for long) last year were for unexpected departures. no money in "coin-flipping" whether hayley will survive.

[revots33]

Last week Dial Idol had a total of 209,000 votes, out of over 30 million. I'm no statistics guy, but is this even enough to draw any meaningful conclusions?

And, according to an article posted on MJ's blog:

"About busy signals, Ken insists that there is no congestion on the national telephone grid. The source of problems, he says, are the local exchanges."

So what we have is a tiny percentage of votes, measuring busy signals that vary with local exchanges and so might not have any bearing on the the total voting volume for a particular contestant.

Given that, and the results so far this year, I see little reason to pay too much attention to the DI numbers. Maybe they will be more predictive when we have 2-3 people left, but at this point they seem pretty useless.

[smbruin22]

revots, interesting comments... not sure who ken is, although i'd seen some reference to that earlier.

if it's AI saying there are no national problems with busy signals, what do we expect them to say, "problems with busy signals because we don't have enough capacity??".......

i understood it wasn't votes, but busy signals... but doesn't it have most of the best people at the top most weeks.... doesn't that suggest it's capturing something worthwhile??

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
revots, interesting comments... not sure who ken is, although i'd seen some reference to that earlier.

if it's AI saying there are no national problems with busy signals, what do we expect them to say, "problems with busy signals because we're too cheap to buy enough capacity??" ......... of course, maybe i don't understand who's saying that.

i understood it wasn't votes, but busy signals... but doesn't it have most of the best people at the top most weeks.... doesn't that suggest it's capturing something worthwhile??

[/ QUOTE ]

[Brocktoon]

The numbers look pretty much in line with what I'd expect right now.

1 Melinda Doolittle -

2-5 Phil Stacey -

2-5 Chris Richardson -

2-9 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar -

2-9 (B3) Blake Lewis -

4-9 (B3) Lakisha Jones -

4-9 (B3) Jordin Sparks -

4-9 (B3) Haley Scarnato -

4-9 (B3) Gina Glocksen

The reason I think Phil is so high is because the judges, Simon in particular, were so over the top harsh on him. Standard sympathy vote.

Gina probably turned a lot of people off with her catty backtalk to Simon after he said she got outperformed. It came off looking bad.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]

i understood it wasn't votes, but busy signals... but doesn't it have most of the best people at the top most weeks.... doesn't that suggest it's capturing something worthwhile??


[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, most people seem to agree that Melinda, Lakisha, Blake, and Jordin are the Top 4 (at least according to the betting lines). Last week DI had Melinda 1, Lakisha 3, Blake 7, and Jordin 8. Not saying this couldn't be close to correct - but it seems to me that you or I could make up our own Top 10, and have just as good a chance at being correct.

DI did have a pretty good record last season, but there were a couple of weeks where it was WAY off. So were the off weeks just variance, or were the correct weeks just a lucky coincidence? Again, could you or I have had just as good success as DI last season, if we had the same margins of error? Probably.

[thing85]

FWIW, Lakisha has fallen below Jordin into the "B3." Again, I don't think it means much, but considering Lakisha had the pimp spot, she isn't doing so hot on DI this time around. Assuming sympathy votes save Phil, my money is on Haley or Gina. Gina has never been B3 before, and the harsh comments on her may arouse her fan base as well.

Haley the odd one out? I'm expecting a "surprise" member of the B3 this week including one of Lakisha, Jordin, or dare I say, Sanjaya.

[primetime32]

I have noticed that the DI numbers have been more accurate immediately following the east coast show. Not sure if anyone is tracking this.