100NL: Big River Bluff of almost 100BB

[Capitan23]

I think he folds here in most cases, unless the river helped him somehow. It's nice that you have that first hand, the two situations are very alike. The difference is, you're the one putting all the pressure on in the second hand. I think you will take this down most of the time, what could he be calling you with? A set, AJ, maybe JTs

[Hince]

I think the hand above shows that his calling range on the flop is going to be very simular to his calling range on the river.

Ie. you have very little fold equity here.

The fact that he smooth called, then checked behind on the turn suggests that he has some showdown value and nothing scary happened to change than on the last 2 streets.

These types of bluffs rarely work for me, so I stopped doing them. I do, however, think that this is a great value shove if you hold an overpair.

[Check_The_Nuts]

well I would never do this to a complete unknown. And I shoved because I know if I check here I win exactly 0% of the time. Definitely always shoving is bad here. But would you really bet AA on the turn knowing that he at best is drawing to a split?

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
well I would never do this to a complete unknown. And I shoved because I know if I check here I win exactly 0% of the time. Definitely always shoving is bad here. But would you really bet AA on the turn knowing that he at best is drawing to a split?

[/ QUOTE ]

u say we dont read hands dear god how is he ever, ever drawing to a split?

[Check_The_Nuts]

gimme, do you really fold AK on flop on a 235r board? ie. gutshot and two overs? I thought he would call with that like 30-40% of the time.

[Heine]

what hand do you want him to think you have?

If I'm villian, I might believe you have a set of 10's. But what are you trying to do here? If he's got a set, you obviously wanted to keep the pot small with your AA/KK. To me this looks like a bad bluff (from his POV). And calls with almost all pairs, from 77+ on up.

I don't think he's floating you with A high.

[Check_The_Nuts]

Heine, he should realize I'm capable of shoving KK/AA here.

PS: I always shove KK/AA here. This is just from the first hand. If you read it carefully you should realize I only really beat him check/calling with a bluffcatcher like KQ/JJ whatever.

[Heine]

So you think his turn check here give us that much information?

[Fousekis]

[ QUOTE ]
66-99, QQ. maybe even a big Ace??

Why do you not expect 66-99 to call that flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably because I am not a very good player [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Are you supposed to call that turn bet with 66-99 given the pre-flop action? What is your next move on the turn when almost every card appart from your two outs are scary?

[Fousekis]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.399% 55.41% 00.99% 737262 13155.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 43.601% 42.61% 00.99% 566988 13155.00 { 99-66 }