How far has NL poker come? How far do we have to go? (abstract/long) - Page 4

curtains · #31 05-17-2007, 01:32 AM

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playing unexploitably is absolutely retarded and not the most profitable way to play, and its not even close. on the stt forum all they talk about is playing unexploitably, but who cares? all that matters is what is the most profitable. unexploitability is not it, even at the highest levels.

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It's very important against perfect playing robot cyborgs, if that happens to be your standard opponent.

Wizzy33 · #32 05-17-2007, 02:33 AM

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There will never be a "perfect" way to play.

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I disagree. It's just that the "perfect" way to play is constantly changing.

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I think this is exactly the case.

If you have a table of 5 other players, and you knew every single stat on them, you knew their hand ranges in every situation, you knew their perception of you, their perception of everyone else at the table, how they think you perceive them, etc etc, then there would be a "perfect" way to play. It would kind of be like if you secretly knew their cards at all times then there is a "perfect" move in every situation.

If you are at a table with 5 very solid players then the perfect way to play would be vastly different then if you were at a table of morons.

HP · #33 05-17-2007, 03:06 PM

Here's a question for everyone:

Suppose some guy figured out how to play HU NL in an un-exploitable fashion (or at least like, very, very close to un-exploitable)

Now suppose he sits at FTP 300/600 for 8 hours a day playing anyone who sits with him

what's his daily rate? how many of you are making more than this currently?

skillzilla · #34 05-17-2007, 03:14 PM

NL strategy is lightyears behind limit strategy

drj003 · #35 05-17-2007, 03:36 PM

Sir, you are underestimating the power of the donkey. There are new donkies playing everyday.

drj003 · #36 05-17-2007, 04:01 PM

Nobody is unexploitable.

CASINOCASINO · #37 05-17-2007, 04:04 PM

tendencies of players open doors to exploitable play. The best of players just mix up their tendencies that leave their opponent to make the right and wrong play with the incorrect frequencies.

Micturition Man · #38 05-17-2007, 04:17 PM

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Here's a question for everyone:

Suppose some guy figured out how to play HU NL in an un-exploitable fashion (or at least like, very, very close to un-exploitable)

Now suppose he sits at FTP 300/600 for 8 hours a day playing anyone who sits with him

what's his daily rate? how many of you are making more than this currently?

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It would be huge, higher than the winrate any actual current players have.

The best NL players are extremely far from optimal with respect to bluffing and to a lesser extent with respect to snapping off bluffs and have big potential leaks here.

Obv, I have just made assertions here. I am pretty confident in them but I'm not sure it's worth seriously trying to argue this.

VanVeen · #39 05-17-2007, 05:08 PM

no, it will not converge towards game-theoretic optimal play because the selection pressure acting on the population do not favor those who deviate the least from theoretical optima. the onus is on you to demonstrate otherwise. strateges are selected for their efficacy at exploiting imperfect, irrational, and heuristically-inclined humans with decision-making biases out the ass. that is trivially true.

even if strategy evolves randomly (it does) our limited powers of cognition circumscribe the area of the strategy landscape we can explore. are you picking up what i'm laying down? given the sophistication and complexity of the game itself no one is capable of even sampling the overwhelming majority of 'strategy space', even by chance. there are countless millions of strategies that cannot even be conceived of, not even by the most prehensile of minds. you'd need a badass computer that's still all theory.

let me make it clearer: everyone playing casts about for an overall strategy that works. some can cast farther than others. some cast farther and faster and can test more strategies. the entire group of strategy seekers, however, all bumble around the same area of strategy space because they're all constrained by the same computational deficiencies. stupid people, small circle. smart people, somewhat larger circle enveloping the smaller. smartest, larger still. area relative to total area? still totally insignificant. there is thus a ceiling to how much progress can be made.

the devil is in the details. most of the real 'game-theoretic' progress (avoiding errors that are salient enough to be reliably exploited) that's going to be made is already done.

this post is a lot like my first one. i don't think you read it!

kotkis · #40 05-17-2007, 05:20 PM

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Here's a question for everyone:

Suppose some guy figured out how to play HU NL in an un-exploitable fashion (or at least like, very, very close to un-exploitable)

Now suppose he sits at FTP 300/600 for 8 hours a day playing anyone who sits with him

what's his daily rate? how many of you are making more than this currently?

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It would be very close to 0ptbb/100 if not exactly that. Figuring out the NE strategy (ie. perfect unexploitability) is not about turning a profit, it's about breaking even.