50NLTRN - bet size

[NNH]

1st hand of match. SS stats aren't great, but not bad either. Slight winning player over a small sample.

Don't have the HH, so here goes...

Villain raises to 60, I call with QJo.

Flop is K92. Check. He bets 80ish into the 120 pot. I call.

Turn is a J. Check. He bets out 180 into 280 pot. I call.

River is a rag. Check. He bets out 200 into the 640 pot.


What do you do if he bets 1/3 pot as he did?
What if he bets 1/2-3/4?
What if he pots?

Ignore the fact that I shouldn't be getting involved like this on the first hand without reads. I know. I'd like to focus on reading his bet sizing throughout the hand and especially on the river.

Thanks.

[PrimordialAA]

This is completely player dependent IMO, with no reads you NEED to fold the flop, and the turn as well I believe. River looks like a cheap bluff or really wanting you to call, dunno if there was a busted flush draw out there, but as for the river bet sizes, you need to know his habits here, it looks like a huge value bet (weak size), but like he really wants you to call and since no RR he knows he has you beat, maybe a weak K.

[Stoneflip]

River looks like valuetown to me. But I fold this on the flop.

[ChicagoRy]

If you call the flop and the turn you have to call this kind of river bet.

Agreed with flop fold but if you're floating why would you fold on the turn when you hit a jack? I could see a heavy cbettor who only fires 2 with top pair, in that case I'd fold if his bluff % is nil and he's not firing 2 with draws or mid pairs or whatever, but that's a fairly heavy read for the first hand of play.

As played call, next time fold the flop without reads, floating OOP with two undercards and a gutshot is a pretty good way to lose chips and frustrate yourself.

[NNH]

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If you call the flop and the turn you have to call this kind of river bet.

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Calling or making a move for the pot.

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but if you're floating why would you fold on the turn when you hit a jack?

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I wouldn't.

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As played call, next time fold the flop without reads, floating OOP with two undercards and a gutshot is a pretty good way to lose chips and frustrate yourself.

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Agree. So the thing with this hand that has me thinking, flop and turn spewing aside, is that river bet.

I mean, I've been calling his strongish bets down on the flop and turn. The river card didn't change anything, so why does he bet so small now?

I don't think it's a weak king. Don't you check behind with a weak king here? (This reason alone is why it's retarded to play the hand the way I did, oop.)

If he has a monster, doesn't he value bet a bit more. At least 1/2 pot. In my mind, there's no reason he should expect that I won't call a decent sized bet if I've been doing it throughout the hand.

Maybe he's betting small to induce a bluff, but on the 1st hand with no prior history, I can't see him expecting to see aggression from me.

I don't know. Does any of this make sense. Just trying to spark some discussion.

[ChicagoRy]

If he has a hand IMO the two most likely holdings are an overplayed nine thinking you'd raise with a king or an uncertain king.

A lot of bad villains will bet a nine here if they think they beat you, but what they don't realize is you will fold everything out that they beat, so therefore betting the hand is pretty idiotic.

Though I've bet nines on these types of hands before, generally betting a nine here is pretty bad, but so is floating this flop.

Anybody float the flop and lead the turn against certain players here?

[NNH]

As a bluff?