50NL Top 2 raised pot with a 3 broadway flop

OrBit · #1 03-05-2007, 04:08 AM

I've made this call a few times now and lost every single time. When am I going to learn to lay it? On top of this, the guy Hollywooded me, asked for time and as the timer ran down pushed. I played pretty well all weekend, but ended it off with this. God do I feel like a moron. (BTW I'm including the results after this comment, it's probably not a shocker what he had. I'll probably get flamed even more than usual, but please refrain if possible).

Villain was 47/31/6. I've played a few hands with him at both NL25 and NL50 and seen him loose 63 bucks.

My question is, it was $25 to win a $70 pot, I MIGHT be a head (not likely but possibly against this guy), but if I was beat I had 4 redraw outs as well. On the other hand there were 5 hands that had me beat (even though 3 were very unlikley), and only 2 possible hands that I had beat. (Giving him credit for 2 pair or better).

My question is, am I ever calling this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($44.75)
BB ($28.20)
UTG ($48.50)
MP ($52.75)
CO ($50)
Button ($36.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button raises to $2, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4, Hero raises to $10, Button raises to $34.25, Hero calls $24.25.

Turn: ($73) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($73) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $73

MrMxyztplk · #2 03-05-2007, 04:11 AM

Given the guy's stats, it's not horrible. I don't think I'd lay this down.

I might bet/3-bet the flop too...

Marshall28 · #3 03-05-2007, 04:14 AM

i cant fault this. villain could have FD, could have pair and SD, could have smaller 2 pr.

Thremp · #4 03-05-2007, 04:23 AM

Run better.

b2l_cricket · #5 03-05-2007, 04:27 AM

I would call especially with such an aggresive villain.

Tiki · #6 03-05-2007, 05:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
it was $25 to win a $70 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like your pot odds are about 2:1.

This villain has got a wide range here.

Hands you beat:QT,KT,AA 18 hands + maybe some others

YOU lose:AJ,TT,QQ,KK,J9 37 hands

Looks pretty EV neutral.

Therefore, call out of curiosity unless you tend to tilt after dropping a buy-in in which case fold and look for a spot where villain can "run you over" again. ie. Get a bit more curious next time.

Played fine.

Sweir · #7 03-05-2007, 06:43 AM

You have got your pot odds wrong when you say its $25 to win $70. You dont include the money that you have to put in when calculating pot odds, it is actually ~$25 to win ~$50 giving you 2:1. If you are behind then you are still about 15% to win. Considering this villian I think that his range is wide and includes a lot of draws and pair + draw hands like AK, he could also have complete air. You only need to win 33% of the time to make this a neutral EV call and you are sucking out 15% anyway so you really dont need to be ahead all that much, call.

mvdgaag · #8 03-05-2007, 07:06 AM

Sounds like someone that would do this with AK? I put him on AhXh or some other straightflush draw or less likely two pair (you have top two, so that's ok).

Looking at his stats I would do the same.

GL

kabouter · #9 03-05-2007, 07:13 AM

I would fold preflop

Freelancer · #10 03-05-2007, 07:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]