Things it took me a while to learn part 8, Bet Sizing

[udbrky]

Can you sticky these? I know I miss them a lot and I'm sure I'm not the only one, but I've really enjoyed the ones I've read and can never find all of them. Thanks.

[CoolWave]

good one...

[pig]

Got to say bond quality series of posts mate absolute golddust
thank you

[sapsuckah]

I usually don't like posting just to say thanks (especially when a zillion others have already done so and I'm contributing nada)...

...but thanks Bond! For all of them...

[EroTheMad]

Bond I love you.

[hamnegger]

i had the same doubts about the qq hand. this is often a set and i would slow down and maybe even fold in a bigger stack event but in a 1500 chip pokerstars donkfest its insta shove and pray. you are beating too many hands to lay it down even the 3 k events you may be too short to do anything but shove.

[Dave D]

Haven't read through the whole post/thread yet, but a couple things I noticed that I thought I'd comment on.

Bond, how do you feel about C/Ring the first hand where you flop a set of 7s? If it checks through I don't mind it due to the board texture. Just throwing it out there, not saying it's right.

The problem is that at least on FTP/Stars people play really tight early. I think the likelyhood that everyone folds to your c-bet is high (especially if it's a lot), and a c/r gives people a chance to catch up OR the last to act to think "let me take a stab."

This also made me think of:

1. As we've talked about on this forum before, people aren't respecting C-bets nearly as much as they used to. I know this contradicts what I just said, and I'm more thinking of mid-early stages (like with blinds in the 100-150 range). What I've found lately is if I c-bet flop with that set of 7s and get one caller, then CHECK TURN, I will get bet at like 80% of the time. At this point I c/r and he often folds, but I think this gets a lot of value, and ther are going to be a lot of times when villian thinks he's committed with his gutshot now, or two pair is good etc.

2. I've noticed the minraise of the c-bet on the flop is almost ALWAYS a bluff on FTP (I just haven't played stars much until recently). They're almost ALWAYS trying to figure out where they are. This means with a set I'm calling the raise, and checking turn because he's probably not putting in any more money. He's got better than A high, but never better than medium pair, and rarely a FD or OESD. I just thought I'd point this out. I check turn to hope to induce a river bet, or alternativly put out a value one myself depending on position obviously. The flop minraise is almost ALWAYS trying to look scary and get you to fold, or "see where I'm at."

3. When villian puts in a pot bet on the flop, after raising PF, this is VERY OFTEN a bluff. Again, this mostly is based on experiance at FTP. Or in general even if villian didn't raise PF, it's still true. This just has to do with the point you make in the post about players that overbet rivers with strong hands. If they overbet the flop, its very often a weak hand just trying to take it down, often AK on a T45r board. This means they AREN'T calling your raise (and is great for stealing from them), and with something like a set I like to just call to induce another bluff on the turn, often an AI, they're thinking oh man, I've already put in so much I just want to take it down now/can't fold now.

Players will also often do this (bet pot, sometimes more on the flop) with hands like AK on a A45 monotone board (where they don't have the FD) to try to protect their hand. They're so scared of someone sucking out on them, that they're willing to lose value and overbet This tends to happen more in laterish stages (like blinds=200) This means if you have a combo draw (where you're like 45% to win or something) go ahead and push (sometimes they'll fold, but more often they'll call, but you don't care b/c of pot odds). This also means if YOU have AJ on a J34 monotone board, go ahead and play this fast and assume you have the best hand, because you do, you aren't worried about the FD, and villian most likely has KJ.


Oh yeah, I've also noticed lately (I made a post about this a few months ago) people open pushing with 10-13 bbs. They always have TT+, AQ+ here. It just looks donkey to push 13 bbs, but don't be tempted to call with AJ thinking they're stealing/bluffing. Also, you should be doing this too. Another bet sizing mistake I see *all the time* especially late tournament is people raising more than 20% of their stack PF (and I'm mostly talking about opening for this amount, or raising limpers). Never do this, just push . Realize that this is probably the biggest bet sizing mistake out there, it's very transparent that someone putting in 25 or 30% of their stack has a very good hand that they're calling any raise with. So realize it yourself too, that that's what they have. Especially late late tournament, someone putting in 25% of their stack is almost never folding.

This also reminds me of BB v. SB situations (probably one of the hardest to play there is). Remember the rule to bet as much as you're willing to call . I see this mistake ALL THE TIME. Namely it folds to the SB, who raises 20% of his stack into me, I push back with 88, he calls with KQs. With a hand like KQs, just go ahead and push, maximize your FE. I mean are you really thinking I'd rather have him push back so I get to call? Not really, because a lot of As are gonna do this (especially late tourney) and you're a dog to them, but if you push you'll get them to fold a lot. The chances of you just taking it down there are going to outweigh the chances you extract more post flop. At the same time, pushing also looks weak/like a steal, which is going to induce calls from worse hands a lot of the time, which means you should do it with AK or TT (I even do it with KK/AA) because you're gonna get called by A7. It just looks really transparent if you have KK and raise 25% of your stack what you want to happen.


This is probably the top post in this series because bet sizing is so key, and is something I still struggle with sometimes after years of playing. Thanks for making this post.

PS Bond it's "too" not "to", as in "I like dogs too". Not trying to be a nit, this mistake makes a sentance harder to read sometimes.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Love these posts - seriously...

Question related to the first example of maximizing value - is there a simple math calculation you use to immediately allow you to determine the best possible bet size on early streets that ultimately sets you up to make a pot sized bet on a future street?

Or asking the question in a different way - what's your stack size in terms of bb to set yourself up this way?

Asking because I love your early example - but determining in real time in advance that "ok, I need to bet AAA on the flop to allow me to bet BBB on the turn, which then sets me up for an X-sized bet on the river that doesn't look stupid" takes a lot longer to figure out than saying "OK i have YY BB post flop, so I'm positioned well to do a TT% pot sized bet on future streets (assuming board texture and hand reading cooperates) with the hope of getting it in on ZZ street"...

Does this make sense? Or is this overly formulaic? Asking because I'm sure there's prob a shortcut that allows one to determine this at a glance (similar to counting outs and quickly estimating % probability of hitting a draw).

Awesome series - there always seems to be at least one "ah-hah" moment for me in reading these...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what you're asking here is basically bet 60% pot on the flop, bet 1/2 pot on the turn. Adjust those numbers based on the texture (as bond says his flop bets are usually 60-75% of flop etc). Just do this and don't worry too much about looking foolish later, but just realize that if you have 1500 left and the pot is 1300, go ahead and push on the river (if you're gonna make a bet), or if you have 1200 and hte pot is 1500, same thing.

I think bond was more trying to get at the fact that if you build a pot early in the hand, it means you can get more in later, not so much that betting 1000 with 1500 behind looks transparent to the other player (although that matters too).

Definitely don't start PSB the flop just to avoid what you think are awkward sized bets later.

[Dave D]

BTW, sorry if my post ventured into the land of hand reading, I was mostly just trying to point out things not to do and mistakes in bet sizing I often see. The hand reading aspect was incidental, and the reasons why.

[Dave D]

Just thought of something else. It's kinda obvious, but I'm surprised it's not in the thread.

Don't ever ever ever ever ever minraise.

The worst is if it folds to the SB, who minraises into the BB. I'm calling in the BB with like almost any two. The worst is late tourney, when I'm getting literally something like 5:1 to call.

All minraising does is give the opponent good odds to call.