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#21
08-23-2007, 03:01 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Tell me about these opponents. Do you have a range for them to call a big raise like that? [/ QUOTE ] They both were playing fairly tightly and raising pf very infrequently. Both passive postflop as well. [/ QUOTE ] Well, that wasn't that helpful [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I am having trouble putting them on a range I like. Calling that big raise makes them likely too loose, but you say they are fairly tight. Suppose they have exactly JJ-22. (Too restrictive, I know.) Then we will lose money from here if we get all-in even if they will always fold without a set. Since I doubt TT+ would fold, it is even worse. They might even go ahead and call with any pair hoping you have your exact hand. (That play is consistent with that pre-flop call.) Now, if they sometimes have an ace or some other silliness, then we might make money by betting (even getting folds from those guys). In short, I think it depends on what "fairly tight" means in the context of calling that pre-flop raise. There seem to be reasonable ranges which make checking reasonable. [/ QUOTE ] Octopus: I think this is a well thought out response, and exactly where I'm at with it as well. They were both running 20/2/1. We have to understand that their calls were made before they got to see how the rest of the field would respond. To me, this indicates some committment to moving forward and I also think it leans them more towards pps. I would like to hear some discussion from others who want to cbet on what Octopus has written here. [/ QUOTE ] We do? If they fold to any flop that they don't spike a set on we will win the pot about 80% of the time and lose about 20% of the time. This will be the scenario a lot of underpairs will have a hard time calling on a lot of flops. 
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#22
08-23-2007, 03:21 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Suppose they have exactly JJ-22. (Too restrictive, I know.) Then we will lose money from here if we get all-in even if they will always fold without a set. [/ QUOTE ] We do? If they fold to any flop that they don't spike a set on we will win the pot about 80% of the time and lose about 20% of the time. This will be the scenario a lot of underpairs will have a hard time calling on a lot of flops. [/ QUOTE ] Well, there are two of them, so your numbers are not quite right. We need the odds that neither one does not get a set. I did redo the math and if it goes exactly like I posited (JJ-22, fold without a set), we do come out ahead by $13 by pushing. (Sorry for the error.) If, however, they do not fold JJ-TT, it comes to a loss of $8.93. If they do not fold other pairs, it gets worse. If they might have other hands, it gets better. They both have underpairs under 40% of the time (given that they started with JJ-22).
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#23
08-23-2007, 03:33 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Suppose they have exactly JJ-22. (Too restrictive, I know.) Then we will lose money from here if we get all-in even if they will always fold without a set. [/ QUOTE ] We do? If they fold to any flop that they don't spike a set on we will win the pot about 80% of the time and lose about 20% of the time. This will be the scenario a lot of underpairs will have a hard time calling on a lot of flops. [/ QUOTE ] Well, there are two of them, so your numbers are not quite right. We need the odds that neither one does not get a set. I did redo the math and if it goes exactly like I posited (JJ-22, fold without a set), we do come out ahead by $13 by pushing. (Sorry for the error.) If, however, they do not fold JJ-TT, it comes to a loss of $8.93. If they do not fold other pairs, it gets worse. If they might have other hands, it gets better. They both have underpairs under 40% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I am pretty sure my math is close. If they both have PP's then there are 4 cards that give either one of them a set. The chances that neither will flop a set is: (42/46)*(41/45)*(40/44) = (0.91)*(0.91)*(0.91) = 75% Now we take the compliment... thank you Dr. Kuenes... That one of them will flop a set 25% of the time. (my original number was 22% but I rounded). In regards to JJ-TT, we will occasionally draw out on them and they occasionally call the flop with the worse hand.
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#24
08-23-2007, 04:16 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
[ QUOTE ]
I am pretty sure my math is close. If they both have PP's then there are 4 cards that give either one of them a set. The chances that neither will flop a set is: (42/46)*(41/45)*(40/44) = (0.91)*(0.91)*(0.91) = 75% Now we take the compliment... thank you Dr. Kuenes... That one of them will flop a set 25% of the time. (my original number was 22% but I rounded). In regards to JJ-TT, we will occasionally draw out on them and they occasionally call the flop with the worse hand. [/ QUOTE ] Sure, that is the probability that one of them will have a set on the flop before we know the flop cards, but now we know that all three flop cards are in their range. Given the flop, there are 51 ways they could have JJ-22. Of those 9 are now sets, so each one has a 9/51 (17.64%) chance to have a set. Since they can not have the same cards, there is actually a 9/48 (18.5%) chance that the second one has a set given that the first one does not. The chance that neither has a set is actually 66.9%. As to the chance of drawing out on JJ-TT, I included that in my calculation of the value.
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#25
08-23-2007, 04:33 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
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[ QUOTE ] I bomb this for $70 and call a push. I don't want to give any illusions of FE here. It's a semi bluff, obviously, but we won't be in too bad off shape if we have to draw out. If this wasn't your plan, don't raise pf. [/ QUOTE ] That's not fair Jeff. You can't predict which of the 30 outcomes will happen when you raise here. [/ QUOTE ]I think you misunderstood the tone- I wasn't being contrary [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I like the PF raise- I just think that a PSB with a commitment to getting it in is the appropriate follow through. My point is, if you've chosen to be aggressive with AK, you've gotta see it through.
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#26
08-23-2007, 04:49 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I am pretty sure my math is close. If they both have PP's then there are 4 cards that give either one of them a set. The chances that neither will flop a set is: (42/46)*(41/45)*(40/44) = (0.91)*(0.91)*(0.91) = 75% Now we take the compliment... thank you Dr. Kuenes... That one of them will flop a set 25% of the time. (my original number was 22% but I rounded). In regards to JJ-TT, we will occasionally draw out on them and they occasionally call the flop with the worse hand. [/ QUOTE ] Sure, that is the probability that one of them will have a set on the flop before we know the flop cards, but now we know that all three flop cards are in their range. Given the flop, there are 51 ways they could have JJ-22. Of those 9 are now sets, so each one has a 9/51 (17.64%) chance to have a set. Since they can not have the same cards, there is actually a 9/48 (18.5%) chance that the second one has a set given that the first one does not. The chance that neither has a set is actually 66.9%. As to the chance of drawing out on JJ-TT, I included that in my calculation of the value. [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't change that we push this flop, but I think you are looking at the math incorrectly. For sake of completeness. You are taking the chance that player A hits a set and adding it together with the chance that player B hits a set. That is over-counting the chance that they BOTH hit a set. You are counting that twice. The math heads can tell me who's this was called. I can't remember. It is a shame that I don't have an upside down 'U'! P(A union B) = P(A) + P (B) - P(A intersection B) You didn't subtract the intersection I believe is why your numbers are high. The way I did it was the simpler way of doing it, imo. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Take the most simple scenario: They call/push if they flop a set and fold if they don't. In that case all that matters is how often they will flop a set since we are pushing every flop. The EV looks like this(I am going to keep it simple with 70 effective stacks, that guy has more and it will lower our EV but this will give the idea): They both fold[ when they don't flop a set 75% of the time (0.75)*(70) = 52.5 When at least one of them flops a set 25% of the time (0.25)*(-70) = -17.5 Total EV: = 35 Since the flop doesn't matter you just calculate the chance that one of them will flop a set(you lose) or that they will fold(you win). You can take these numbers and take 20% of 75% and that will give you how often they have JJ/TT and don't flop a set and do more fun stuff from there.
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#27
08-23-2007, 04:50 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
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My point is, if you've chosen to be aggressive with AK, you've gotta see it through. [/ QUOTE ]Which is not to say that we blindly push AK in any situation . . . What I mean is, this is a big pot and our equity is likely somewhere around 25%, and THAT is if we get to showdown. I think we can add a little fold equity if we play this pot aggressively and it will be hard to exploit (because presumably we'd play JJ+ the same way).
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#30
08-23-2007, 06:19 PM
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Re: 200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop
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[ QUOTE ] I think you misunderstood the tone- I wasn't being contrary [/ QUOTE ] Darn, I suck at catching tones on the internets. [/ QUOTE ]Nah, I re-read my statement and I sounded like a [insert something that needs to be censored here]. But it wasn't my INTENTION to sound that way [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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