Impending Regulations/Reality Check

[JimmytheHat19]

With the pending regulations (which I understand are supposed to be out within a couple weeks) I need to know what is going to happen to ePassporte. I have been freaking out for the last 6 months or so in anticipation of this and it looks like it is finally going to happen.

Very simple question: Will I be able to continue to make withdrawals to ePassporte from my poker site (Full Tilt) and then hit the ATM and get my money AFTER the regulations are out?

My current financial and employment situations depend heavily on the answer to that question. I would appreciate any intelligent answers... I know there are a lot of intelligent ppl on here. Sorry if this is an old or boring topic... I cant think of a better place to ask this question.

[WichitaDM]

Being an online pro for the last four years this is a big concern for me also. But having studied this a lot i will give you my take on what i know about this issue.

First off Epassporte is slightly better positioned than the other payment processors in one way being that they dont take "gambling" transactions, only poker transactions.

They are in a tough position with regard to the regulations because as i understand it they are based here in the US of A. In other words if the regulations strictly prohibit ePassporte, they will likely have to close shop to us.

That being said, im not sure anybody has any idea what the regulations have in store for us at this point. They are over a month late now and frankly could be just about anything. From my understanding of the way this is going to work the worst case scenerio will look something like this.

The regulations come out next week
Epassporte immediately closes up shop
We have to rely on checks during the comment period
The 90 day comment period ends and the poker sites decide they can no longer stay in the market because of the harshness of the regulations

However what i think will happen is somewhere in between what we have now and the above scenerio.

I see the regulations coming out sometime in August.
During the 90 day comment period it will be the status quo.
After the comment period when they go into effect we will be down to basically checks and a few minor processors.
Epassporte surviving is possible due to the non handling of sportsbetting and casino gambling.
Possibly one or two of the major sites will close to the US.

Personally i hope we maintain the status quo after the regulations, but i think there will be at least minor damage. I do think it will stop short of total shutdown though. There is going to be too little money and attention spent on this by the federal govt, and too much demand by US citizens to compeltely close this market.

[MiltonFriedman]

"Epassporte surviving is possible due to the non handling of sportsbetting and casino gambling.
Possibly one or two of the major sites will close to the US.'

Fair analysis generally, except that the likelihood of BOTH your above sentences coming about bare close to zero.

IF ePassporte were to get a "pass" under the Regs., about a 1% chance, and the "pass" was due to a poker only status, then it would be Christmas in August. However, that is NOT going to happen.

Epassporte MAY get a pass, functionally, if it is exempted as an EFT/wallet provider from offshore. I'd say about a 3% chance.

As for one or more major rooms closing to US players, I'd say about a 80% chance, even if the Regs are beatable thru an offshore EFT/wallet provider.

On the bright side, I think you are wrong about the market being underserved. Anyone who is a "pro" will be motivared enough to find the way to play and there will be venues online to play. IF players want to play, there will be one or more sites available, with both US and foreign players .... The problem has always been the accessibility of sites to US casual players and the heavy dependence of "favorite" poker sites on the US market. THAT segment may die.

In three years, the drought will be over and the US market will again be accessible to the casual player, with US approved brands.

[JPFisher55]

If any regulation bans Epassporte, then I predict that they will initiate litigation challenging the regulation. The owners of Epassporte have experience in challenging the DOJ because they serve adult porn sites.
I actually think that if the regs ever come out, then they will be more general in nature. They won't give online poker an exemption or declare it legal, but they won't specifically target online poker or any type of online gambling.
I doubt that the regs will greatly change the present situation.

[Uglyowl]

Here is a website with one guys take. Not a bad little site he put together. luckychancer posted this in the internet forum and didn't get any response.

http://www.compatiblepoker.com/usa.php#usapokerupdates

[Halstad]

I've seen this website.
On August 2nd he wrote "According to a reliable source and someone who works on Capital Hill the UIGEA regulations are just about done and should come out within 1-2 weeks. This of course is a rumor but it's from people in DC so it's better than someone winging it"

Who knew his source was 2+2, this was one day after Berge reported the exact same thing.

[CompatiblePoker]

[ QUOTE ]

Who knew his source was 2+2, this was one day after Berge reported the exact same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find Berge quite a reliable source don't you? In a lot of the posts I give props to twoplustwo members pointing out or emailing me info.

In regards to the op, Wichita and Milton summed things up pretty well. Also, I think you'll see a lot more mergers & selling of US player databases but I don't see any of the big sites going anywhere.

As far as epassporte, I think they will do everything in their power to stay in business although it doesnt look good. Their business quadrupled over night because of poker sites pushing them...I'm sure their legal team is ready and well paid.

[IndyFish]

[ QUOTE ]
In three years, the drought will be over and the US market will again be accessible to the casual player, with US approved brands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone NOT see this happening? Unless the Republicans win back the House and Senate (good luck with that) I think it's just a matter of time until we have legal online poker in the US.

Any thoughts?

By the way, great site CompatiblePoker. I check it every night after work to keep up to date. Thanks for the hard work!

[redbeard]

Regarding epassporte and the impending regulation, would it (epassporte) disappear overnight for U.S. customers or would you think it would continue to opperate during the "public comment period" of the regulations? Obviously the reason I ask this is to determine if i should pull a large portion of my funds off the sites and out of epassporte this week prior to the release of the regulations. Thanks in advance for your thought out opinion on this subject as I'm sure it is a concern a number of 2p2ers are having. I'd especially like to hear the opinions of Milton, Skillgram, Berge, Bluff, Engineer and others who are a little more knowledgeable on the subject than others who like myself are pretty much totally in the dark. For example, my opinion on this would be rank speculation and not worth acting on.

[WichitaDM]

Personally i think epassporte will stick out the comment period unless the regs specifically prohibit them from serving the us poker market.

I think this is because they will not yet be in effect (read enforceable) and as i understand it the comment period is the time that affected parties have to try and change the regs themselves. IE the first set of regs that come out if they ever do, may not be the final version that gets implemented 90 days from then...

Again i am simply an online pro who has been watching this closely, and i may be completely off base

PS - The chances of ePassporte running with your money is very small. They are based here and have other sources of revenue thru porn that makes it almost 100% unlikely you wouldnt see your money from them.

Also the previous poster who stated that ePass may be willing to litigate over this may be very correct. The fact they are being judicious about who they associate with bodes well for the fact that they are in for the long run, rather than just trying to gobble up as much money as they can before the regs come out. If they were in it for the short term i would think they would be proccessing any and all payments knowing that they would simply exit the market when the regs came to pass.