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  #1  
Old 08-23-2007, 02:42 PM
QuietEarner QuietEarner is offline
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Default Help with river value bet size.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $59.10
BB: $25.65
UTG: $51.50
MP: $55.60
CO: $80.80
BTN: $29.30

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 34/12/1.2 Plays TPGK hands a little over aggressive, and plays TPWK very passively. He is also a calling station with second pair type hands. Never saw any evidence of him floating flops.

UTG limps very often, not concerned with him preflop.
</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.30, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, BB calls $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

Flop: ($4.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.30</font>, BB calls $3.30, UTG folds

Turn: ($11.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, BB calls $7.00

River: ($25.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)

<font color="green">Hero bets ????</font>
<font color="red">Villain has $13.85 left</font>

Is this just an easy put him all in, or is that over doing it.
IF I PUSH: I figure he would fold missed flush, possibly fold a second pair, 75% sure would call with Qx up to T, 95% sure he calls with Qpaint or better.

He calls all of the above for half his remaining, except flush draw.
I'm sure some math problem solves this but I don't know it, and prob couldn't calculate fast enough at the table.
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  #2  
Old 08-23-2007, 02:45 PM
netstorm netstorm is offline
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Default Re: Help with river value bet size.

Betting more on the turn (someting like $8,50 - $9) would solve this problem. You can easily put him allin on the river then, since he's commited with any other Q. As played, I still push this allin.
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  #3  
Old 08-23-2007, 03:00 PM
QuietEarner QuietEarner is offline
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Default Re: Help with river value bet size.

Good point I miss this alot, betting a turn amount that allows more river value. leak in progress of fixing(hopefully). To much looking at amount of pot, rather than pot and players stack.
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  #4  
Old 08-23-2007, 03:09 PM
KEW KEW is offline
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Default Re: Help with river value bet size.

River bet size is not important...If villain is CALLING on the river he will call for the rest of his stack..What is more important is what range on this villain is wider villains CALLING range or villain BETTING range....Will villain bet a busted draw??? Is villain calling off his stack with an under pair???
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  #5  
Old 08-23-2007, 03:13 PM
dnord dnord is offline
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Default Re: Help with river value bet size.

The clever math is basically: how many more calls can you induce by making smaller flop bet? Is there any smaller bet that gets you significantly more calls? I don't think there is. (I don't think that's why we play micro, either.)

My only problem with the hand as played is that I don't know what weaker Q fits into his calling-a-5x-raise-from-BB range. Obv. we're delighted if he calls all-in with QJ, but... really? Are we up against that? If he's passive, check-call should do the trick. If he's super-super passive, then check-fold fits the bill.
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  #6  
Old 08-23-2007, 03:16 PM
QuietEarner QuietEarner is offline
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Default Re: Help with river value bet size.

his range is Q anything, he plays way to many hands. The 5x bet probably doesn't concern him as is standard for me with a limper in the pot.
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