A9s multiway with RIO

[fretelöo]

Ok, just to give you guys an idea about just how atrocious folding would be here:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,387,691,600 games 287.578 secs 25,689,348 games/sec

Board: 4s 5c 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.033% 45.70% 02.33% 3376120342 172405090.00 { As9s }
Hand 1: 13.309% 12.04% 01.27% 889481968 93770805.00 { 77-66, A9s-A5s, KTs-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A8o, KTo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 19.434% 18.49% 00.94% 1366182238 69555389.33 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo }
Hand 3: 19.224% 18.28% 00.94% 1350677100 69498667.67 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }


Now, obv. you have to adjust that to the number of players etc. (also, hand 2 and 3 have all their premiums in their range - which is probably too generous), but you get the idea.

[fretelöo]

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I kinda felt like folding the flop, but that's maybe just a little too weak.

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A little?!?!? You should be raising and hopefully 3betting that!

Turn semi-bluff raise is cool, though I'd prefer a somewhat more raggedy board for that. River check seems reasonable.

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I don't understand, you want me to three-bet the flop, but call the turn?

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Yes, the value of your hand has obv. decreased with the added str8 potential that 7 has brought. Plus, of course, the fact that you're still 6ways.

[fretelöo]

All,

what about a b/f on the river? Is 9x/8x calling often enough?

[martybonus]

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Marty,

let's try that again: I have top pair top kicker. My hand figures to be best now, but not so anymore if I let villains draw cheaply as it is a weak TP and many cards can hurt me. Since I reason to have the best hand now, I ... do what?


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Right, so my first reaction was 'easy raise with TPTK'. But I'm not convinced it's that simple.

First off, this is a 6-way pot and i'm not convinced our weak TPTK is ahead. The flop is semi-coordinated so stupidly cold-called SCs could have been rewarded, it could also have made someone's set if they coldcalled with weak-ish PPs. We're quite possibly behind now and we're certainly going to be lucky to stand up all the way to the river. Virtually any club or T+ is a bad card. would also like to not see a 6 or a 7 unless they're spades.

So my immediate reaction and the action you suggest is to exploit our (at best small) edge. By raising the flop we can knock players off GS and BD draws, bottom pairs, etc, and in so doing raise (possibly) for value and to prevent suck-outs.

But I'm not convinced this works. First, the pot is 14.5SB, so if hero raises he's offering 15.5:2 or 7.75:1. Ignoring the specific situation for the time being, in a 6-way pot if I have a GS i'm most certainly going to call 8:1 due to implied odds. In this situation, i'd be a bit hesitatnt due to the FD, but i'd still consider it. So a raise to knock GSs prolly aint going to work here. It might not even work against people who only hold OCs with redraws, at least if they have, say, KxTc. I can't see a raise knocking all 3 coldcallers out. Maybe 1-2 which still leaves us in a 4-5 way pot with a weak TPTK and LOADS of scary cards which could come.

Also, we're not *sure* the coldcallers have air. If we raise and get 3banged, do we then fold?

I guess i'm not convinced about the raise because it a) isn't really for value cos we're quite possibly behind in this 6-way pot and b) even if we get 1-2 people to fold, our TPTK is still losing to loads of cards on the turn. It may make people with bottom pair or BDFD fold, but it's not going to make much a difference to the GS draw-ers.

So that's my reasoning for suggesting we consider a fold. In retrospect, a call is probably the worst option.

[Marquis]

I don't know how somebody could make 8,000 posts and not raise this flop.

[seano34]

This hand seems classicly the; Vunerable made hand, large pot, position on the aggressor with an opportunity to make it two to go to any hand behind you that is drawing - type hand.

i.e raise the flop.

Your favourite topic marty!

[Ampelmann]

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I don't know how somebody could make 8,000 posts and not raise this flop.

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I think Dave's main problem here is that the flop bettor is 18/3/not-aggro. What does a tight-passive player bet the flop into the preflop raiser with? A set, 2 pair (though unlikely given his vpip of 18), and maybe a flush draw come to my mind. Maybe TP2K, hoping the pf-raiser has wiffed overs.

[martybonus]

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This hand seems classicly the; Vunerable made hand, large pot, position on the aggressor with an opportunity to make it two to go to any hand behind you that is drawing - type hand.

i.e raise the flop.

Your favourite topic marty!

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i hate poker.


but it's ever so preferable to trying to teach myself partial fraction integration.

*sigh*

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[fretelöo]

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I don't know how somebody could make 8,000 posts and not raise this flop.

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touché, sir! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Marty, most of that is MUBS with trying-to-talk-yourself-into-a-weak-tight-attitude mixed in. Sure, everybody could have AA or 44 or 99. You're probably right - a raise doesn't knock out most draws. So go with the second opiton. Value. You're putting in 2SB, two freakin' small bets, to win 12 immediately and a pot of - what was it? 17sb? - total!!!!!!!!! Do you realize how rarely that has to work for you to be profitable?

[Ampelmann]

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i hate poker.

but it's ever so preferable to trying to teach myself partial fraction integration.

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I find that a lot easier to master than poker.