There are worse plays than this one right?

Soultwister · #1 10-20-2007, 11:38 PM

Situation: Villain is a gambler on donkey-tilt. His play seems almost irrelevant to his cards.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Profiles and Stacks:

UTG ($80.00) 24.3/21.2/4.7 (189)

UTG+1 ($48.25) 17.9/12.6/0.9 (318)

CO ($69.85) 18.8/10.4/4.3 (144)

BTN ($55.60) 40.6/27.1/3.5 (96)

Hero ($112.85) 24.7/15.9/2.6 (615)

BB ($61.05) 12.2/10.5/12.0 (172)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, BTN raises to $1.7, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.3

Preflop was pretty standard compared to his nearly ATC-range. Raise size was to make committing easier should I hit TP or miss on a rag board.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($12.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $12.5, BTN goes all-in $49.6, Hero calls $37.1

Betting pot here was done for a reason: Villain would reraise all-in here with ANY pair and many bluffs and semi-bluffs, but would call here with his strongest hands, like two pair, KK or AA. This means betting pot priced me in vs a one pair hand.

I insta-called after his shove because that was the plan, and would check-fold if he just called and I didn't at least improve to a pair of aces on the turn (since he would never just call flop with JJ/QQ/22 or anything like that, he would shove).

Results follow later.

jerryf1914 · #2 10-20-2007, 11:56 PM

hello variance

Peleus · #3 10-21-2007, 12:17 AM

Don't like it.

Most players like this, might be loose / tilty, but don't have a death wish. Effects of tilt can often be massively over estimated.

Secondly its quite possible, even likely he holds something such as TT, JJ and is scared of an overcard. He might be aware of his image and play a set like this as well.

Thirdly in terms of the range you beat, its air. You're assuming he hit ANY of the board, you're at best drawing to approx 7 outs (BDF counts as about 1 out), so you're around a 70/30 dog in that spot. Same goes for PP's.

Fourth - This is a cash game. Villian will still be there, why make hero calls like this if he is playing like you say. You will get his money eventually, and this is a very very marginal play. Tons of better spots to get your money in then this. Patience is the key.

Fifth, what does you're cbet fold out, that a smaller one wouldn't. I think you're burning money by betting the pot here. Rule of bluffing is bet the least that will get the job done, and a cbet is a glorified solid bluff. Betting out 7/8 will vast majority of the time get him to fold any missed cards he is going to fold, and reraise / call what he is going to call. You're just pricing yourself into trouble.

Soultwister · #4 10-21-2007, 12:40 AM

Villain would never fold here to a smaller bet but would generally raise to the size of the pot or minraise, and on this flop, he has to assume I missed.

Bet-folding here would be too expensive considering he'll take the pot every time when I miss, So c-bets are wasted on him, which also explains my pot bet. I'm priced in here as 70/30 dog after his shove, while I wouldn't had I bet less.

So this play was purely from a mathematical viewpoint.

Peleus · #5 10-21-2007, 03:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain would never fold here to a smaller bet but would generally raise to the size of the pot or minraise, and on this flop, he has to assume I missed.

Bet-folding here would be too expensive considering he'll take the pot every time when I miss, So c-bets are wasted on him, which also explains my pot bet. I'm priced in here as 70/30 dog after his shove, while I wouldn't had I bet less.

So this play was purely from a mathematical viewpoint.

[/ QUOTE ]

Saying he would NEVER fold to a smaller bet seems like a pretty specific read here. Also you say that on this flop he has to assume you missed, wouldn't high pocket pairs be the majority of your 3 bet range?

2p2J · #6 10-21-2007, 04:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, BTN raises to $1.7, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.3
Preflop was pretty standard compared to his nearly ATC-range. Raise size was to make committing easier should I hit TP or miss on a rag board.

[/ QUOTE ]
The raise from the SB is pretty spew. Just call and see a flop. You say the raise was made to give you an easier decision on the flop. You missed and your still committing your self and going back on your play.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($12.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $12.5, BTN goes all-in $49.6, Hero calls $37.1

Betting pot here was done for a reason: Villain would reraise all-in here with ANY pair and many bluffs and semi-bluffs, but would call here with his strongest hands, like two pair, KK or AA. This means betting pot priced me in vs a one pair hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You follow up with a bet with no idea where you stand and OOP 2 things that put you at a huge disadvantage. He pops it on you and you call with Ace high you only have a bluff beat which in his case is the least likely holding right now.

HasPair · #7 10-21-2007, 04:35 AM

3-bet pre-flop is standard

Spurious · #8 10-21-2007, 07:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, BTN raises to $1.7, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.3
Preflop was pretty standard compared to his nearly ATC-range. Raise size was to make committing easier should I hit TP or miss on a rag board.

[/ QUOTE ]
The raise from the SB is pretty spew. Just call and see a flop. You say the raise was made to give you an easier decision on the flop. You missed and your still committing your self and going back on your play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not 3betting preflop is probably the worst thing you can do!
I'll give you the reasons why:
1. We got a button raiser, therefore he got an even wider range to open. We got AQs in the SB, that's an insta-3bet.
2. Villain is pretty loose, he raises 27% of his hands, therefore AQs is way ahead of his range.
3. With a 3bet you get control over the pot, small PPs cant take the pot away from you.

Stop being such a nit! I 3bet AQs from the SB all day long in probably every BTN vs. Blinds battle.

Lego05 · #9 10-22-2007, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, BTN raises to $1.7, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.3
Preflop was pretty standard compared to his nearly ATC-range. Raise size was to make committing easier should I hit TP or miss on a rag board.

[/ QUOTE ]
The raise from the SB is pretty spew. Just call and see a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not raising pre-flop is pretty spew. Raising pre-flop here is standard.

Post-flop seems bad. It has to be one hell of a read for me to not make a normal c-bet and fold to further action.

Soultwister · #10 10-22-2007, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It has to be one hell of a read for me to not make a normal c-bet and fold to further action.

[/ QUOTE ]

From the action I've seen by this player the reads seemed pretty reliable. The only hands he played normal were hands where he had huge hands, like at least TPTK. So his play became quite transparent.

Making a normal bet and then fold would be too costly compared to the % of the times I'll make the best hand and villain has a nice second best hand he wants to continue with.

On this flop with 1 club I have between 27-30% equity vs a one pair hand, and I estimated bluffs would make up a large part of his range, about 20%, 15% at the least.

So my only options here would either be to check-fold or bet pot, price myself in, and call shove. C-betting normally would get me raised to around potsize nearly 100% of the time, which would also resort into me having to fold.

After calling villain showed KQ, Q hit and I won thanks to kicker.

Obviously being more patient would be the less-variance filled option here, but variance is something I do not really care much about.

I just thought this hand was interesting because when you have reliable reads, got a maniac like this one at the table and do not want his playstyle to take advantage of yours (and worse, want to prevent his stack ending up in some nits hand while he leaves table), some more risky plays can beat his style as long as it's mathematically correct.