world baseball classic anyone? - Page 2

roundmound · #11 03-06-2006, 05:03 AM

Its easy to win your games when you only post that you bet a team after they win. Im 55 and 0 this year!

jedi · #12 03-06-2006, 12:39 PM

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I'd say it's as close to a sure thing that Japan wins its group, along with US and the Dominican Republic.

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team USA is tied with the giants split squad 7-7 in the seventh inning right now. i hardly view that team as invincible.

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Japan loses and you point out that the USA is the one that is not invincible? Im sure you are an amazing handicapper.

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Wow. Japan lost? It's pool play right? So they should still be able to lose 1 and win their group still? Before the WBC started, Japan to win their pool would have been my surest bet, but I'm a noob at this so take that for what it's worth.

Edit: Okay, I guess each pool only plays 1 game vs. their opponents, not 2. So Japan is 2nd place, Korea wins the group. Good thing I didn't put any money on it.

AllinOnDraw · #13 03-06-2006, 03:55 PM

I've been watching the line on pinnacle this afternoon and the line has gone from U.S. -5.5 +125 to about -5.5 +140 so far. My gut says there is value in taking Mexico +5.5 -150. I look at the rosters and just don't see why Mexico should be that big of a dog. Also, I have a hard time(duh) betting against teams I want to win.

BobJoeJim · #14 03-06-2006, 10:01 PM

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I'm waiting for individual games. I expect to see some whacky lines and big dog value. It's spring training! Anything can and will probably happen and laying wood will be a sucker bet regardless of the teams involved.

My guess is if you look at every game in this thing as a coinflip and take the plus money every chance you get you will profit from the WBC.

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I was thinking along these lines as well. What do you think is more likely to be positive value, all other things being equal, though? The positive money or the underdog? Given that many games are so uneven that they have runlines, these are very different strategies.

For example, Mexico +5.5 runs, -191, vs. USA -5.5 runs +176 (yep, it's continued to rise). Do you look at it as a case where you would trust the books' runline to be relatively accurate, and so take the plus money due to the volatility of these games, or do you assume the favorite is overvalued and take the team getting the runs (like everyone seems to be doing, based on line movement).

I'm more interested in your general opinion based purely on the lines, than your thoughts on Mexico and the USA's teams, so I'd love to hear a response that covers your general thoughts about any line that acts like this one has, over the course of the WBC.

crockpot · #15 03-07-2006, 05:43 AM

ignoring the starting pitching matchup (which isn't as important as usual with the pitch limits in round 1), bp's davenport translations say mexico wins this game roughly 26% of the time. they're +740 at pinny right now.

italy is rated as 60% to beat australia, currently +115. panama 27% to beat puerto rico, +620. again, these ignore the starting pitchers; they just look at the best pitchers from each staff.

mrbaseball · #16 03-07-2006, 01:04 PM

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Mexico +5.5 runs, -191, vs. USA -5.5 runs +176

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I never saw goofy lines like this before? I just grabbed some Mexico +5.5 -126???? If Mexico is as good as a Random A Class team this is a bargain. I haven't payed much attention here and I don't even know who plays for what team. 5.5 runs?! Yeah I'll take those runs as long as most of Mexicos team is ambulatory.

larrylegend · #17 03-07-2006, 01:13 PM

Mexico is +5.5 +105 on Bowmans right now.

AllinOnDraw · #18 03-07-2006, 04:59 PM

The line is like a yo-yo. I checked it earlier and it was at like +5.5 -125 earlier this afternoon sometime. It's back to +5.5 -161 though. Crazy stuff. BTW, it's on at 4pm EST on ESPN2 if you're wondering.

Homer · #19 03-07-2006, 06:11 PM

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italy is rated as 60% to beat australia, currently +115.

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Italy is now +155. I realize the 60% stat doesn't take into account starting pitchers, but right now breakeven win percentage is 39%, which is way off from that. I can't imagine starting pitcher matchups would make that much of a difference, especially since pitch counts are capped at 75.

Thoughts, anyone?

-- Thanks, Homer

jedi · #20 03-07-2006, 06:33 PM

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italy is rated as 60% to beat australia, currently +115.

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Italy is now +155. I realize the 60% stat doesn't take into account starting pitchers, but right now breakeven win percentage is 39%, which is way off from that. I can't imagine starting pitcher matchups would make that much of a difference, especially since pitch counts are capped at 75.

Thoughts, anyone?

-- Thanks, Homer

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The line opened up with Austrailia at +110 at least. I wonder what happened to drive the money to the Aussies?