NL10: Loose cbet turns into a monster, but the river = death card

[Shoe Lace]

I'm not too happy how I played this hand, mostly because of what I did on the flop. I based my actions on my image rather than the board.

Situation:
I'm pretty new to the table (less than 3 orbits). Villain in this hand is involved in many many pots. He's limping a lot, and calling raises.

He appeared to call flop bets, and occassionally min raise them with unknown hands (he didn't show any down). He also loved to min bet when no one else bet with any piece.

This is all the info I could get on him in about 15 hands.

The hand:
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $9.90
BB: $10.20
UTG: $9.90
MP: $8.55
CO: $8.90
Hero (BTN): $10.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.50</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15) 3 A Q (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.80</font>, CO calls $0.80

Why am I cbetting this flop? It's pretty darn coordinated and my hand will likely not be good if I spike a T or J.

Still I decided to cbet because this was the 2nd time I raised preflop (first time I check/folded when I wiffed with 44 on an 98J 2 tone board in a 3 way pot).

I didn't want to make him think he can call all my raises preflop and expect a check unless I hit the flop hard.

Turn: ($2.75) K (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, CO calls $2.50

Sick, I hit my miracle. One of my 3 clean outs landed for once. Initiate hands + pants = profit mode.

River: ($7.75) A (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets all-in for $5.10</font>, Hero [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Pretty much a punch in the face here. It was one of the few cards I didn't want to see. So many oddball hands now crush me.

Still I'm getting pretty good odds to call. Does he have trips often enough here to insta call this?

I found it hard to believe he'd shove the river with trips given the board is one of the scariest boards you can ask for. On the other hand, he has been playing a ton of pots but I haven't seen him check/call large bets then shove the river yet.

[DaycareInferno]

i think that cbet is alright. if the guy has been limping and calling into lots of hands, its not like a couple of high cards nails his range or anything. also, you don't have that much showdown power with a jack high, and there's only 3 cards in the deck that turn your hand into anything that can stand a little heat. so, cbetting was probably your best option unless this guy is also super loose post-flop.

[Scott Y.]

c-bet should fold a lot of junk you can't beat - that's important. You don't know what he has on the river, but there's no reason to think he's very smart. It's either a weak ace or clubs, with some random worse hands a small (but maybe swaying) %. If he's really limping a ton and min-raising a fair amount then he probably has the flush and you should fold. This is a weird bluff even for a weak player too. I'd fold (but apparently I fold too much).

[Gorgias]

If villain is playing clubs I think he played them badly. He called your PSB on the turn ... he has 9 outs to his flush, and for that is willing to lay out $2.50 in the hopes of your $10 stack. Assuming that he stacks you every time he makes it, and that he never wins when he doesn't, he's paying $2.50 for EV of $1.95. Do people play flushes this way?

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
If villain is playing clubs I think he played them badly. He called your PSB on the turn ... he has 9 outs to his flush, and for that is willing to lay out $2.50 in the hopes of your $10 stack. Assuming that he stacks you every time he makes it, and that he never wins when he doesn't, he's paying $2.50 for EV of $1.95. Do people play flushes this way?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's calling to win the 5.25 in the pot + doubling the additional 5.1 he has left in his stack after his call. Thus, he's betting 2.5 to win 10.35... odds of 4.14:1. His flush odds are ~4.2:1 against, or ~4.1:1 against if he assumes you don't have clubs (since you're leading so hard, it's safe to say that you probably don't). Mathematically, it's a "Meh" play - it has roughly 0 EV so he should be indifferent between calling and folding with his clubs.

But yeah, people will play flush draws far worse.