i think this is really close

[TxRedMan]

Poor player limps UTG (kind of irrelevant).

A solid, tight, but usually passive player limps in MP. He's a winner in the game and does not get out of line, but for example, if someone raises preflop and he has AK and the board is A2KQK, he usually wont put in a raise if bet into on all streets.

CO limps, I raise my button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB calls, all limpers call.

Flop comes

3-3-K

checks to me and I bet, UTG calls, solid reg calls.

Turn

6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], makes a flush draw possible

checks to me again, I bet, UTG folds, solid reg calls.

River

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

solid reg checks.

At this point he usually has the case 3 or A245 or similar, because he was getting the correct price to peel one on the flop for a backdoor low, and there is still a chance he has a hand like A2Kx, in which case he will likely begrudgingly call a river bet b/c of the size of the pot.

My image is solid, but from time to time I do go nuts in this game for metagame purposes. i.e., cold capping someone's limp-reraise when I have something like AKQ8 ds or sometimes as little as JJ45.

I suppose it comes down to this:

The action suggests that he will overwhelmingly only call a river bet with the case 3 or AK, and he's much more likely to have the case 3.

Even if you broaden the kind of opponent in this hand, do you still value bet this river?

Seems like too often it will be called by the same hand or the same hand that spiked a dangler on the turn or river, and anything less than AK is going to have a very hard time calling a bet here, but a lot of players would pay off with AK.

Note that there's no straight or flush possible, and when I raise preflop, I usually have multiple wheel cards, so an observant opponent will know I have trips almost always when I bet all three streets.


I know this is a little on the meticulous side, but hey, it's just as important as anyother value bet.

I think this is also a more interesting spot, because even if a baby club comes that makes a flush possible, i'm still going to bet b/c i've got a strong two way hand, and we've already discussed that.

For discussions sake, do you bet the river if it comes say, the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]???

I know this is a little tl;dr, but I hope we can talk about this spot a little bit.

[Burdzthewurd]

[ QUOTE ]
A solid, tight, but usually passive player limps in MP. He's a winner in the game and does not get out of line, but for example, if someone raises preflop and he has AK and the board is A2KQK, he usually wont put in a raise if bet into on all streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that mean he would just call down with something like A3Kx, fearing you have might have something like KK with small cards?

I guess if he's going to call that light with AK (that seems pretty light considering you raised preflop and fired every street, and he obviously doesn't even beat AAxx here) and call with the case 3, seems like you should value bet here. Nines full would seem rather impossible, even threes full of kings, so the only hand I'd imagine you'd see beat you is something like A266/A366 (I'll let Buzz do the math on those probability holdings if he chooses to enter into this).

So in conclusion, it looks like a bet to me considering what he'll pay off with, and even if he has you beat somehow, that he won't checkraise you (if he does, seems like an easy fold).

PS Sorry if my logic sucks, highest I've played live was 5/10 kill.

[prodonkey]

he hasn't shown any agression.. A39 is a possibility as is a slow played KK? Will he even check raise you with 39? If he is as you describe him probably not. I see no reason not to bet the river if he will look you up with AA/AK and possibly a 3 with lower kicker. I really don't even see the dilema.

[Borys313]

It depends if MP plays only his own cards or if he tries to put others on a hand. If he tries to read his opponets he will probably assume you have AAxx A2KQ etc.

So he should check-raise turn with a "3" to charge you one more bet in case you have A2xx and maybe 2 extra bets if you have AAxx and are almost forced to call till river.
If he had a "3" and didnt check-raise or bet river you should probably revaluate your opinion, he isnt any good.

The way he plays it looks alot more like AKxx (backup low), ok he missed his low but will probably make a crying call anyway.

Do you seriously think he would play a floped boat this way?



So, value bet river.

[Heron]

For the river bet to have any value it should be almost certain that he will make a crying call with kings up. (I don't think he has two aces.)

If he has a K he's bound to have also a 2. Otherwise he would have played the hand differently. Since you both have an ace and the fourth card doesn't matter much in this case we only need to look at two card combos.

When you get called, you'll win against K2 combos (9) and lose to 36 and 39 combos (6). Otherwise it's a chop.

If this is correct and it's really that close it cannot be right to bet out when the river brings a Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[howzit]

you're never going to be c/r'ed by the solid player and almost always be called by the case three.

looks like free money no?

[Toro de Rojo]

I see the dilemma. If he gets called, TX doesn't rate to beat much (good chance of chopping, but not winning). And if the guy was low drawing, he'll fold. So why not check, if there isn't anything that is going to call you that you can beat? I guess the answer is what could he have for a high hand?

Solid reg doesn't sound like the type to play an overpair on a paired flop. Plus, no PF raise means you can probably eliminate Aces. With that being the case, you have to give him a large amount of credit for at least having a 3. And as TX said, he might have hit his dangler on the turn or river.

So it seems like a bet either (a) makes reg fold, or (b) makes him call with a hand that you may lose to or--likely at best--you chop.

I probably check.

[1MoreFish4U]

I would likely check the river. I expect that he has A3 and I am either chopping or beat on the river. Most times if you are ahead after the river card, I dont think you get paid off, so it is not advantageous to risk 2 large bets there (as I would have to call if I bet the river & was raised).

[howzit]

this guy isn't c/ring the river...that was stated in the op.

it's still a bet here, it's not as fat as everybody's used to in this game. 3s full happens but w/the 9 on the river, a bet has more value then say a queen. (i'd also consider betting the queen of clubs if we had the ace of clubs but in this theoritical spot, i'd just go to showdown)

you should also be betting here to protect against your past and future 3 barrel bluffs.

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
you're never going to be c/r'ed by the solid player and almost always be called by the case three.

looks like free money no?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd like to clear up something in the OP-

he rarely has AK, but when he does get to the river with AK, it's with something like A-2-K-x, i.e., it's standard to call a flop bet w/ AK on that board, especially with A2. You have to call the turn with TPTK and NLD, so once you get to the river it's usually a payoff at 13-1 iirc.

But he wont showup w/ AK as often as a better hand.

The only case three I rank to beat would be contained in a hand like 2-3-4-5.