LO8 Bad river card. Still value bet?

[cgkid]

Value bet this river? Villian in this hand has shown a tendancy to call down light.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, CO calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7BB, 2 players)
Hero...??

Results:
Final pot: 7BB

[Pokeraddict]

No way I would bet there.

[TxRedMan]

check/call.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Value bet this river? Villian in this hand has shown a tendancy to call down light.

[/ QUOTE ]cgkid - He's not likely to have diamonds, if that is what you are worried about.

From what you can see, it's about 4.3 to 1 that Villain doesn't have the diamond flush. (from 23178/123410).

I hate to disagree with Pokeraddict and Tex, but I think you have the winner. Go ahead and bet it.

Although I have never played this limit (1/2), I'd guess Villain's pre-flop raise probably represented ace-deuce-Y-Z, suited ace-trey-Y-Z, ace-four-Y-Z, A-A-Y-Z, four high cards, or four wheel cards. Or maybe he simply raises whenever entering the action because that's how he's see the big guns play Texas hold 'em against each other on TV.

The flop bet is probably a continuation bet (that he learned about from watching a different poker game on TV). The lack of a re-raise on the flop probably rules out A-A-Y-Z or K-K-Y-Z. The lack of a raise on the turn reinforces ruling out A-A-Y-Z or K-K-Y-Z.

Bet.

Buzz

[wackjob]

If you can trust you opponent is not very good, not very tricky, and not very aggro, I would bet/fold the river. Otherwise, I would bet/call.

[Scott Y.]

bet/fold this guy. ~any 2p looks you up here. his turn call has more to do with a low redraw than the flush card. he'll almost never have a straight given that. if you check, nothing you beat is betting and a lot of payoff hands check it down. it is pretty obvious what you have, but it's also 1/2 and people hate folding aces up. bluff raises shouldn't happen given the flop.

against other guys you should consider check/folding if you have a good sort of image. a check/call plan here is sort of a hanging curve for your opponent IMO (an exception might be an overaggressive guy bet/calling these flops with 4 low cards). what to do all depends on how often you get called by 2 pair.