channeling the dyson/ILP

[ILOVEPOKER929]

PREFLOP: Standard

FLOP: I would raise the flop. It looks like we'll have the SB beat with our nut ace quite often in this spot given his stats/description. In this large pot size I wanna get this pot HU before the turn card to maximize my chances of winning this pot. Plus, like I said before, I like our hand here against the SB's betting range.

TURN: Theres a flush draw possible combined with the fact that I expect the SB's range to be very large here and I expect his calldown range to be very large also. All this points to raising the turn for pure value. I also expect the SB to 3bet the turn with a lesser hand at a much higher frequency than normal which also supports a turn raise.

RIVER: Given the way you played this hand, the river is close between going for the overcall and raising. Alot depends on how often the SB has nothing and will fold to your river raise, and whether the BTN will call two cold with Kx on the river.

Overall I do not like the way you played this hand.

[Heisenb3rg]

1) Raise the flop... SB is donking a wide range that you beat, and you would like to fold out another Ax that has 5 outs against you.

2)I doubt player behind you has a flush draw, QT or a monster based on the flop action so he likely has a pair.
You haev a pair crushed right now.
That being said theres also value in getting additional bets from the SB when hes possibly drawing dead/thin and protecting your hand in a nice pot.
Id lean towards raising the turn, but its close.

3) if hes extremly agro/dumb its best to raise here.
A tighter player wont be overcalling the river very often with less than a pair of kings... and morons definitly call the raise with a lot of crap.
If SB 3-barreling is rare here, its best to overcall, since the chance you are beat is higher than like 2% (what I would estimate from a really retarded villain)..

I think flop is the easiest decision.

[Oink]

About flop and raising for protection

If the guy behind us has Ax and 4.5 outs when hero has the best hand he will have a marginal call at best getting 8:1.

Whenever button or SB has a made hand it would obviously not be correct to raise.

I am really not convinced that we should raise for protection here.

[yourface]

maybe I presented villain wrong. when looking at his stats keep in mind that we are playing 3 handed. he's a bad LAG not a total maniac spewmonkey. like I don't expect him to be donking this flop with total cheese or b/3b an underpair given the action

when considering raising the flop I was thinking that the guy behind us won't be peeling with much that we don't have dominated

[vmacosta]

i bet you dyson and ILP disagree on at least one street here.

[thepizzlefosho]

I think you can definitely make an argument for raising any street in the hand.

arguments for raising the flop have been made, but I don't think it is horrible to just call.

I think the turn is a definite raise since there are straight and flush draws possible and you can force the third player to pay to draw. Also it is pure value since you have the best hand the majority of the time.

as played on the river I really think you should raise since you will get a call most of the time, but a lot of the times that you would have gotten the overcall they might overcall two with a K anway.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe I presented villain wrong. when looking at his stats keep in mind that we are playing 3 handed. he's a bad LAG not a total maniac spewmonkey. like I don't expect him to be donking this flop with total cheese or b/3b an underpair given the action

when considering raising the flop I was thinking that the guy behind us won't be peeling with much that we don't have dominated

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether we should raise the flop or not obviously depends on how often we have the flop bettor beat. Based on your description of the villan + his stats + the pecularity of that flop bet itself lead me to surmise that raising the flop was better than calling. Just so we dont get bogged down in semantics, the flop raise isnt just a protection raise. Naturally there is a value element and a protection element involved with this play. I only bring this point up becuz the fact that the BTN may not peel behind us very often with a live 6 outer doesnt mean a raise here is incorrect. This line of reasoning would only be incorporating the protection aspect of this raise.

That said, you were there Yourface, so your judgement on the flop betting range of the SB should be alot better than mine. If you think that the SB will have you beat here often enough to make calling better than raising then I will believe you.

[Heisenb3rg]

what ilp said [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

and there is a slim, non zero chance that you fold out a better hand.