NL100 hand, but its deep, and i have a weird read

[cowpig]

My apologies, I didn't register that that turn bet is in fact 70bbs.

You want to get in if you are doing well enough against his range to warrant it. My guess is that you aren't, but here's a quick pokerstove I did of his possible range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.497% 36.50% 00.00% 273 0.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 63.503% 63.50% 00.00% 475 0.00 { 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8c8s, A9s-A8s, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, JsTs, Jd8d, Td8d, 98s, 7d6d, 7s6s }

And I think the way he's played the hand so far looks much more like a made hand than a draw, so you're probably doing significantly worse than this.

Disregard everything I said before and insta-muck.

[People_Mover]

i'm dumping this on the turn as well.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
My apologies, I didn't register that that turn bet is in fact 70bbs.

You want to get in if you are doing well enough against his range to warrant it. My guess is that you aren't, but here's a quick pokerstove I did of his possible range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.497% 36.50% 00.00% 273 0.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 63.503% 63.50% 00.00% 475 0.00 { 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8c8s, A9s-A8s, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, JsTs, Jd8d, Td8d, 98s, 7d6d, 7s6s }

And I think the way he's played the hand so far looks much more like a made hand than a draw, so you're probably doing significantly worse than this.

Disregard everything I said before and insta-muck.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're not discounting A9s/A8s/98s/99/88 at all though while discounting JTs/76s by 67% and you're only including the very strongest part of his FDs. You only need 41% so I still think decision is pretty close.

But the fact that Ad/Kd/9d is accounted for kills too many of his possible fd-combos and proabbly makes this a marginal fold.

[xorbie]

he limp called and check raised you on a board that hit your raising range pretty nicely (theres an A omg) and then fired big on the turn even though you are both very deep and even though you called the flop. this is NL100 so unless this guy is like the cts of NL100 you are beat here 80% of the time and the rest of the time he's got tons of outs.