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#41
09-10-2007, 07:21 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
I still don't see why Jax was a bad pick unless you want to be results oriented. [/ QUOTE ] Tennessee is my surprise pick of the year, so I was obviously against that. Using the rules though, it does fail the "divisional game" rule. 
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#42
09-10-2007, 11:09 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Jack, there are 100 players in your league. All 99 other people pick Team A, a 90% favorite. The 2nd biggest favorite, Team B is an 85% favorite. You should take Team B, DUCY? [/ QUOTE ] This is why it sucks that my league doesn't show picks until they are locked. [/ QUOTE ] Makes it more strategy instead of just letting you rape the donkies.
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#43
09-10-2007, 11:13 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I still don't see why Jax was a bad pick unless you want to be results oriented. [/ QUOTE ] Tennessee is my surprise pick of the year, so I was obviously against that. Using the rules though, it does fail the "divisional game" rule. [/ QUOTE ] Yea but that's just because you have a super mancrush on fast black QB's and think they are godly men.
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#44
09-10-2007, 11:36 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Jack, there are 100 players in your league. All 99 other people pick Team A, a 90% favorite. The 2nd biggest favorite, Team B is an 85% favorite. You should take Team B, DUCY? [/ QUOTE ] If A loses and B wins, I'm the champ. (8.5% of the time) If B loses I'm done though (15%). What am I missing? This is kind of a moot point since most online survivor leagues don't show who picked what team until kickoff.
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#45
09-10-2007, 11:39 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
Pre week 1, your EV is 1% of the prizepool.
If you pick A, you keep an EV of 1%. If you pick B, you now have an EV of 8.5%
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#46
09-10-2007, 11:42 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Pre week 1, your EV is 1% of the prizepool. If you pick A, you keep an EV of 1%. If you pick B, you now have an EV of 8.5% [/ QUOTE ] Isn't it more than 8.5% in Pick B (because of the times both teams win)?
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#47
09-10-2007, 11:43 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Jack, there are 100 players in your league. All 99 other people pick Team A, a 90% favorite. The 2nd biggest favorite, Team B is an 85% favorite. You should take Team B, DUCY? [/ QUOTE ] If A loses and B wins, I'm the champ. (8.5% of the time) If B loses I'm done though (15%). What am I missing? [/ QUOTE ] Going into the league, you only have a 1% chance of winning. Picking team B gives you an 8.5% chance of winning. You've increased your odds to win by 850%. That's a good thing.
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#48
09-10-2007, 11:44 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Pre week 1, your EV is 1% of the prizepool. If you pick A, you keep an EV of 1%. If you pick B, you now have an EV of 8.5% [/ QUOTE ] Isn't it more than 8.5% in Pick B (because of the times both teams win)? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah when both win and both lose. You move on. That is just EV from winning outright.
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#49
09-10-2007, 11:44 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Jack, there are 100 players in your league. All 99 other people pick Team A, a 90% favorite. The 2nd biggest favorite, Team B is an 85% favorite. You should take Team B, DUCY? [/ QUOTE ] If A loses and B wins, I'm the champ. (8.5% of the time) If B loses I'm done though (15%). What am I missing? This is kind of a moot point since most online survivor leagues don't show who picked what team until kickoff. [/ QUOTE ] This is why figuring out who the majority will pick is probably the best skill to have.
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#50
09-11-2007, 11:58 AM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this I think. I completely understand why the separation concept is vital, but mostly if it's a league you can pick the same team as often as you want. But in most leagues, where you can pick each team only once, I don't understand why it's more important than trying to plan ahead.
splashpot stated that looking ahead to Week 7 was a bad move. (Actually, he said retarded, but I digress.) I guess I don't understand why. Since it was the strategy I used last year, I used it again this year, and through Week 11, I was able to pick a different team each week that I thought would probably be favored by at least 6 points. (One exception, week 9.) Assuming I apply the separation concept and use sportsbook lines and whatnot to make my picks week by week, I would expect to run into some troubles where my best pick is only a 2 point favorite or so. Also, by looking to the future, couldn't I hypothetically be one of very few people picking a game that is the only "lock" for the week? I'm looking at one specific week where I think one game will have a much more lopsided line than any other week, but that team could conceivably have been picked earlier in the season. That would dramatically increase my equity if there are very few people that can pick that team. I guess I could be overthinking it. Really, I'm just asking for reasons why planning ahead is a bad idea, and if picking in the present and selecting the best game week by week is really the best way to go. I feel dumb.
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