50-100 river...

[geormiet]

AQ i usually wouldn't have gotten to the river against ggbman, KQ i think might actually just check call (you're right i could be bet calling there though) and QJ i'd probably have made a play at the hand on the flop or turn.

[joker122]

there are 18 combos* of KQ/AQ and 16 of KJ.

so 53% of the time we get an extra bet and a 47% of the time we lose an extra bet.

BUT he could fold to the raise...and we sometimes call the 3bet. in a situation where your equity is very slim (here, 53%) these 2 factors are actually pretty huge - especially since he should probably fold KQ to a raise alot of the time.

so this actually does swing it into a call i think.

*I didn't discount AQ because i personally would make it to the river here with AQ in a steal/defense situation and also because i completely took QJ out of his range to compensate a little.

[Tryptamean]

I dont understand why everyone wants to assume he will make a move with QJ so often. Given Hero's cap preflop, it seems reasonable that Villian wants to draw cheap and gives himself very little fold equity...

[geormiet]

I think we should assume that a fair amount of the time he will make a move with QJ, and factor it into his range caclulation at the river.

Wouldn't you agree that players will play QJ agro on this board vs. a capper some of the time? I think it's correct to do so persnally.

[ggbman]

I think in these games, people play QJ aggressivley postflop in top keep me from capping light, make me call down lighter, etc... it has reasonable equity vs. my cap range and if he can get a scare to fall and bet me off the best hand it has tons of value obv.

I feel like i get paid off by KQ+ when i raise the river just about always here. I also feel like whenever i raise here, i get 3 bet, and think that i should be calling more. However i know intuitivley and from looking through some hands that it's just selective memory really. I think KQ, KJ, and AQ could all be played exactly like this postflop against me in this situation. I guess i would just have to look at combos of AQ, KQ vs. JK, cuz i feel like it's one of these three hands like 98% of the time.

[geormiet]

You really think that AQ is equally likely as KQ and KJ? I think it's actually really unlikely - the fact that you are holding 2 aces already, plus the fact that he folds the turn a good portion of the time.

I feel like it's heavily weighted towards KQ and KJ.

[ggbman]

Well no, i mean obviously there are less combos of it for starters since i Hvae two aces. And KQ, KJ should have better equity on the turn after my bet most of the time... but I was saying that WHEN he has AQ, i can him peeling the turn here a decent amount, or at least i feel like i see people who play similarly to him do it a majority of the time.

[geormiet]

its true most people will peel w/ AQ when I think about it.

off topic - what do people like to do on the turn here with AQ?

[joker122]

"I guess i would just have to look at combos of AQ, KQ vs. JK, cuz i feel like it's one of these three hands like 98% of the time. "

i already did this.

[ggbman]

Yeah, i just saw that. Makes me want to call.

Geo- With AQ on the turn here i like to puke in villians shoes, because i usually do not feel like there is a good option available.