Rate This "Edge"

[David Sklansky]

I'm asking this question as a poker thinking question only. No ulterior motives. I'll give you my opinion in a few days.

You are playing in the final event of the World Series of Poker. 5000 entrants. You are one of the better players. Chances of winning are one in 2000. EV is $25,000.

You can see both cards of the player on your right every hand. No matter who it is. You have no qualms about using this information. You also, for the purpose of this question, have no concerns that odd plays will eventually be picked up by the other players. In other words, assume they won't be.

What is your new chances of winning the tournament?

Also what would your chances be if somehow you had no idea that the exposed cards would keep happening? In other words you played each hand with the expectation that all future hands would be normal (but in fact they aren't).

[leaponthis]

Can the answer to this question be found in The Mathematics of Poker by Chen and the other guy that does a good job posting here? You know the guy. He answers all of your math questions better'n you answer them yourself. I mean when you answer them of course. I'm still trying to get a feel for whether this book has any va-alyou (think George W.) or at least the $19.95 (plus shipping) Amazon asks for one. For the rest of you this is not a book advertisement. My question is a search for the truth via mathematics. Much more important than the value of illicit information obtained during a pure event like the Main EVent of the WSOP.

leaponthis

[Bicycles_Biatch]

I think this is a good question except for your last paragraph... after about 2 dozen hands of the dude to my right exposing his cards... there is going to be a certain level of expectation that this will continue for as long as possible.

Regarding the math... i would say your EV goes up 25%. In very simplistic terms I would say that it gets 10% easier to play ALL hands and 100% easier to play hands where it ends up blind vs. blind.

[mjkidd]

I think your EV goes up way, way more that 25 percent. I think it would be more like 500 or more percent. The player to your right's stack basically becomes yours; he's just holding it for you. You can enter the pot after he does pretty much with any two cards, isolating when appropriate. There would be no need to get involved in pots with anyone other than him with less than an outstanding hand. If the structure allows for a lot of deep stack play, your edge goes up, if everyone has low Ms, your egde goes down.

[jackaaron]

If he's a very skillful LAG, my EV goes up in correalation to our difference in skill (provided he has MORE skill than me). For various reasons.

[ill rich]

i think you'de have at least an 80% chance of winning the whole thing.

when it got to heads up, you couldn't lose.

[multious]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you'de have at least an 80% chance of winning the whole thing.

when it got to heads up, you couldn't lose.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol

[Gobgogbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding the math... i would say your EV goes up 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

It has to be much, much higher than that. Consider that having the ability for *just* the heads up nearly doubles your chances to win the tournament.

[ALawPoker]

Off the top of my head, I'd guess about 1-100 if you know the edge will continue. About 1-1100 if you don't know.

(I'm assuming that even though odd plays won't arose suspicion, the player to my right will eventually feel uncomfortable against me, and will avoid me to some degree when the cards don't force his hand. Give everyone amnesia every hand, and the edge is a little bigger.)

Also, a lot depends on how good the player is at maximizing this edge. Two players with $25K equity under normal conditions might have very different equity adapting optimally to these. I guess we're assuming the average here. But it might be better to assign some sort of range. At least, you have to make sure you don't assume optimal adaption into your answer.

[jlkrusty]

I would guess my chances would improve from 1 in 2000 to somewhere around 1 in 20.

My strategy would be to avoid unecesarry gambles. For example, suppose I have T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. My opponent has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I have 70.5% equity. However, if my opponent had more chips than me and moved all in on the flop, I'd probably fold. In otherwords, I'd wait for situations where I didn't have to take an almost 30% chance of being out of the tournament.

If I didn't know the exposed cards would keep happening, I would be taking those 30% gambles more often. Thus, my chances of winning the tournament in this scenerio might be 1 in 50 or 1 in 100.