NL50 TPTK faces AI push on river.

[Panic__NL]

Villian is 50/12/1.4 over only 57 hands.
I think his line is weird, but do we call his river push?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $58.55
UTG+1: $64.55
CO: $8.15
Button: $47.45
Hero: $98.90
BB: $93.85

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $14.25</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($33, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($33, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button is all-in $31.2</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $95.4


My line of thought was as follows, his reraise on the flop could mean a lot. Flush draws, sets, an Ace with a lower kicker. I dont attach to much value to his AF over only 50+ hands and being in a blind battle this could well be a total bluff.
So I call his reraise and see what he does on the turn. He checks behind, he could do this with a FH hoping I am on a FD, by checking he gives me a chance to the second best hand and get more value. Or he is still on a FD and takes the freecard.
On the river the flush does not hit, I check and he moves AI for a PSB.
If he thinks I am weak, which is pretty obvious, and he has a monster, why does he bet so much, because he doesn't want a call. If he thinks I am weak and he has a monster he would make a lower bet in the hope I call with something like AsXs.
So his AI on the river made no sense to me and that is why I called. Does it make any sense to you?

[samwallistea]

Personally I would have reraised flop, probably shoved depending on chip stacks, hate being OOP to a guy like this.
As played yeah Id probably call this bet I could see his way of thinking if he's got flush draw "wow two checks but Ive got nothing Ill move allin on a bluff maybe he'll fold".

[greggg230]

Looks like a busted flush draw to me since he checked the turn. Maybe he has a monster like pocket 10s, but obv. you're not gonna fold out of fear of that. I seriously doubt he'd check the turn with a set or two pair.

[Tevac]

Odd indeed - Given that he plays a lot of hands he might have JT preflop, which would be in line with his stats to call your preflop raise.
At the flop he considers your bet being a bit weak to fold given that he has a middle pair with an ok kicker and his reraise should give him enough knowledge about your hand (or he is just overconfident). Once you call, he knows that you have at least one Ace. With the turn he now has a set, but wants to slowplay it, therefore checks.

On the river, he can be sure that you dont have a flush and also probably not a set of aces and when you call, he is going all-in to extract maximum value.
....

Just my opinion - now all the Pooh-bahs can cruzify me :-)

Regards
Tevac

[Panic__NL]

He will only extract max value if I have a good hand, there is no reason to think so, cause of my check on both turn and river, or is there?

[Tevac]

[ QUOTE ]
He will only extract max value if I have a good hand, there is no reason to think so, cause of my check on both turn and river, or is there?

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point (and I think it is a solid one), why should you just call on the turn with a good hand - still, you called his reraise on the flop, so I would put you on AA or two pairs.

I see enough players who would call all-in on the river with just this hoping that the villain is just bluffing.

[Wintergedaerm]

I would never call this on the flop, id either shove or fold.

[Panic__NL]

[ QUOTE ]
I would never call this on the flop, id either shove or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

because?

[Andynan]

With a 33$ pot on the turn there is no reason for him not to bet 15$ at least to get you pot-commited if he had AT or a set of 6's turned FH. I think we see two connected or one gapped spades like 9s8s or 9s7s a lot here, his flop RR in position was intended to fold you if you missed and allow him to take a free card if he wanted it. Nothing got there and after checking to him twice I think you have to call this and feel good, i expect you to be good here 50% at least, maybe more as you beat all reasonable aces but AT.

[Panic__NL]

I like that thought about the turn, result is the same, call river.