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#11
02-06-2007, 07:14 PM
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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time, which leaves you drawing dead. if 50% of the time, you're drawing dead, 25% he has a draw, and 25% he has a AA/KK, you are -EV, and I think he has a set much more often than that. [/ QUOTE ] Jason, I am glad you wrote that because you motivated me to check the math, and I think you are mistaken. Even if I am drawing dead 50% of the time, if you assign the weights above (25% AA/KK, 25% flush draw), it is still a slightly plus EV call. 
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#12
02-06-2007, 07:29 PM
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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time, which leaves you drawing dead. if 50% of the time, you're drawing dead, 25% he has a draw, and 25% he has a AA/KK, you are -EV, and I think he has a set much more often than that. [/ QUOTE ] i actually think he has a big draw the vast majority of the time here, and an overpair almost never. in my experience those who limp big pairs are not the types to go crazy on the flop in the face of this much action. you're getting 8.7-4.1, so you need 32% equity. in the simple case of either set or OESFD, if he has the draw 2/3 of the time you have to call. if you relax it to include OESDs and NFDs, he needs to have the draw 3/5 of the time or so to make this a call. i happen to think 2/3 is about right (based on how quick he raised especiallyl), but this is very much player and read dependent.
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#14
02-06-2007, 09:40 PM
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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time blah blah blah [/ QUOTE ] This is a terrible analysis considering it's usually the opposite -- people are often more talkative when they have a monster DRAW than a monster MADE hand.
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#15
02-06-2007, 09:57 PM
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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
wtf to all the "fold preflop".
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#16
02-06-2007, 10:16 PM
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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
Because we have 84o in the worst position with 6 limpers in the pot. What scenario do we want the flop to be? 844 and hope someone with A4 gets all in? 84o really doesnt work together. If you are going to play it there are hardly better flops than the one we are with here.
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#17
02-06-2007, 10:58 PM
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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
Because we have 84o in the worst position with 6 limpers in the pot. What scenario do we want the flop to be? 844 and hope someone with A4 gets all in? 84o really doesnt work together. If you are going to play it there are hardly better flops than the one we are with here. [/ QUOTE ] For all those saying fold u have obv not played deep stack poker.
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#20
02-06-2007, 11:44 PM
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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
For all those saying fold u have obv not played deep stack poker. [/ QUOTE ] Hero is sitting with 6500 in a 25-50 game. WTF are you talking about? Oh, and fold preflop.
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