over pair facing river pot size bet against TV pro

[Bullitos]

It looks like villain has some medium showdown hand here 80% of the time and the rest of the time air/missed draw stuff (just an estimate based on the HH). Therefore it's way more profitable to make him pay one more bet since hero has been really agressive and hero is capable of 3rd barreling a weaker hand. Because of this, villain will probably show this hand down with a mediocre holding.

(I think this is what apathy means...)

[Phresh]

cero,

Won't an Ultra LAG get looked up on this river very light (or at least a lot lighter than QQ)? And isn't it more likely that Villain called 2 streets with a made hand that he likes as opposed to a made hand that'll turn itself into a bluff on the river?

[cero_z]

[ QUOTE ]
cero,

Won't an Ultra LAG get looked up on this river very light (or at least a lot lighter than QQ)? And isn't it more likely that Villain called 2 streets with a made hand that he likes as opposed to a made hand that'll turn itself into a bluff on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I doubt, unless he doesn't respect OP's play at all. OP raised pre and then fired 3 barrels into a tight opponent in position. This is so rarely a bluff, and what hand that AJ beats is betting this river besides a bluff?

[snugglez88]

I like this line... river is an obvious call after you check.

[Phresh]

[ QUOTE ]
This is so rarely a bluff, and what hand that AJ beats is betting this river besides a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but I figured an Ultra LAG had triple barreled before this hand or something insanely nuts to get that image.

[ikestoys]

c/c looks like a good way to give value to his draw and to miss value on your overpair

[KvGalen]

Isn't this the kind of spot where he checks behind all wordse made hands, bets all better hands and bluffs very rarely?

Based on the HH i think you have the best hand around 80% of the time and with your image he's gonna pay you off with a lot of hands. But IF i was gonna check it would be to check/fold def. not to check/call

[klownage]

Bet/fold or check/call i think are both viable.

[anduril]

"Hero in MP makes it 120"

standard?

[LAgambol]

what do you put in the villain's range? would you bet on the river with KJ or AJ?