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#41
10-28-2007, 09:42 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Sagarin has Navy as 1 pt fav after HFA. ... Predicting it as PK is not crazy. [/ QUOTE ] Differing opinions are fine, my point is, are you putting 20% of your BR on the game? 10%? 5-7% after big Kelly reduction? If not, then *you* are the one saying you don't believe your/ their models. It's one or the other by definition, since I know you guys understand Kelly by now. As for predicting the Open, ND is the biggest public fave walking the earth, ever, even bigger than NYY. You know the line would lean that way, making a prediction on the thread that doesn't incorporate that is silly. Never said it was 'crazy,' just offbase. This is a free prediction thread, there's no penalty for admitting when you messed one up [rare [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ]. No one's gonna think less of you or make you pay a fine. 
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#42
10-29-2007, 11:20 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Naj- If I put 20% of my bankroll on every game where the line missed my estimate by 3 points or more, I wouldn't have any money left when the totals came out.
Adding: Rutgers +3 Nevada -5
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#44
10-29-2007, 12:47 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
First time posting any kind of anaylsis behind picks, i'm fully expecting to be ridiculed and faded but please if you must at least be gentle... anyway here goes:
Temple +7.5 @ Ohio 1u Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and heads to Ohio with favourable match ups; Temples horrible ground attack faces an equally abysmal rush defence (temple being 104th in rush O, Ohio 109th rush def). Both teams field middle of the range passing offences and temple fields a slightly better pass defence. I'm expecting neither team to be able to establish the run leading to lots of 3rd and longs leading to punts meaning a low scoring affair where a TD advantage should be enough for Temple. Navy +3 vs ND 2u Navy has travelled well recently being 8-3 SU on the road and 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. ND in contrast has been horrible ATS at home going 2-8. Navy also has the number 1 rush offence in the nation and i don't see how the week off will have improved ND's defence enough to be able to stop it. Navy's defence may be horrid but so is ND's offence i see this game as closer to PK or even Navy-3 then Navy +3.5 which is why its a 2u play and the only one for the week at that. (Will almost definatley be adding the ML but waiting closer to kick-off in the hope of better odds) Other plays that i'm considering (especially if i get line shifts in my favour) are: Arizona st +7 @ Oregon Washington U @ Stanford +3 UTEP -7 @ Rice Maryland +2.5 @ North Carolina Flame away =) Dom
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#45
10-29-2007, 01:01 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Navy +3.5 available at various places right now dom, just helping out. Also Maryland is at +3 and it might duck back down soon (actually a few books just shaved half a point, just my 2 cents. I like the picks. What do you think of
Texas A&M +21 @ Oklahoma?
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#46
10-29-2007, 01:05 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
domolm- Welcome and GL.
Adding: CSU +21.5 CSU has fared well on the road and it's not like BYU is a powerhouse. They've been tough at home, but this is too many points IMO.
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#47
10-29-2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Also Dom,
Like Naj said earlier on, ND is probably the biggest public money bet this season despite their horrific stats. If you trust your analysis that the line is off by 3-6 pts. then I think you should feel comfortable with a small moneyline bet when it opens (though I'm sure you were already planning this). Aus, think the Navy ML will open around +135?
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#49
10-29-2007, 01:32 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
S. Carolina +4.5 1 Unit
Purdue +7 1 Unit Navy +3.5 1 Unit Michigan -4.5 1 Unit Stanford +3 1 Unit Missouri -4 1 Unit Boston College -6.5 2 Units UL Lafayette +30 1 Unit
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#50
10-29-2007, 01:38 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Love the Michigan pick Icha, especially with Henne and Hart returning after a week out.
Unofficially Texas A&M +21 @ OU
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