$2/$4 TT, bottom set

[hess]

Villian is 27/23 with a 5.0 aggression factor after only 144 hands. I have been playing fairly tight aggressive.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players



Stack sizes:
Hero: $535
UTG+1: $1077.70
CO: $285.50
Button: $172.35
SB: $382
BB: $422.40


Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]; T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img];
Hero raises to $18, 3 folds, SB raises to $62, BB folds, Hero calls.


Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]; J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]; Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]; ($128, 2 players)
SB bets $100, Hero ???

Is an all in here bad? Should I let villian fire again on the turn?

[ibuckyourfutt]

way too many turn cards destroy your hand or your action

[luckychewy]

i would probably fold this pf. now that ur here i think calling and pushing are both okay since stacks are very shallow.

[zac777]

It's going to be very tough to get any more action out of a hand that you're beating. If he's calling a push w/ JJ+ and AK, you're 43% to win. I think most people can find a fold at least some of the time w/ AA and KK here since your push represents so many hands that have them crushed. If he folds AA/KK, you're only 27% to win.

The other point to consider is how wide his 3 bet range is. I'm guessing that a 27/23 is 3 betting you with a pretty wide range. Let's be conservative since you've played tight and say he's 3 betting 99+, AQ+ (5.1% of all hands). Also assume that he's c-betting all of them. If he folds to a push w/ all but the ones that are ahead of you, that's about half of his range. You win 27% of the time against the rest, so:

He folds (50% * +228) --> +114
He calls you win (13.5% * +444) --> +60
He calls you lose (36.5% * -322) --> -118

Total: +$56

I don't think you get any more action unless a K, A, or 9 comes to complete his straight. Your call is scary enough that he probably doesn't fire again on a blank turn without the goods. I probably just shove it in unless his 3 bet range is very tight, and I don't think there's any evidence of that.

[FiSheYe]

Zac I appreciate your analysis... But what if he not only calls Sets but also 2pair's QT, QJ, JT.. that would even things out and maybe he is even calling OESD with KK or Gutshotstraightdaw and AA from time to time... While I hate that flop because of higher set's I still like shoving due to all that money in the pot. Guess it's a super ugly hand cuz he will show JJ, QQ, AK very often.. still it will be at worst a super slightly -EV play but you will sleep a lot better knowing you didn't muck against 2pair, overpair or a mean continuationbet with air. In addition due to the fact he is a LAG, he might do light 3betting with 76s and stuff like that on occasions or maybe he hasn't paid much attention to your weak play or thinks you are able to lay down AJ or better PF.
I like shoving for the psychological warfare reasons and the fact that you will see a fold in a lot of cases while in other cases are still drawing live...
Dunno if folding might even be a mistake longterm.

[zac777]

Yes, if he will call a push w AA, KK, 2 pair or will raise a wider range pf (likely) then it gets even better. I was going for close to a worst case analysis, and even there pushing is better than folding. I definitely think folding is a big mistake.

[luckychewy]

fisheye,

'Dunno if folding might even be a mistake longterm.'

if we are calling this pf, which i don't like very much to begin with given there is no read of there being any history or battling going on between these two, there is no way in hell we should even considering folding this hand on this flop with these stacks.

[FiSheYe]

Well I concluded zac's analyses as almost equally towards fold/call but would have called anyways.. Given his wider range, no history it's a shove.

So the way he played, shove, otherwise just muck it PF.