My stats

[7csCB]

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Point 1: I agree with you, a winning 70% doesn't make sense, but it happened. Why??????????

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Variance.

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Point 2: As far as I can see, the 95% is the only logical explanation. Its impossible what he did, yet he did it.

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Not impossible: Re-read my reply to 1 again.

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Point 3. Do you have any PT data backing up your statement??? "BTW, 3000 hands is insignificant given the greater variance associated with these loosest of tables."
I don't play these levels but maybe you do.

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No, but I have lots at 1/2. Filtering for players with min 1K hands and then sorting by VP$IP, I observe the following:
- 140 players.
- Highest VP$IP = 68% @ 1595 hands and -4.4BB/100.
- 4th highest VP$IP = 49% @ 1032 hands and 8.2BB/100!
- 9th highest VP$IP = 44% @ 1,115 hands and 8.1 BB/100!
Admittedly smaller samples and tighter play somewhat mitigated by stakes (1/2).

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Point 4: When involved in such games one MUST reverse strategies. Its as simple as that or if you like, make adjustments.

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Yeah, make adjustments. I can't see reversing strategies. How?

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Point 5: What has been your experience with non-rake games in your social circles??????????? It is common for friendly games to see 4th or the flop blindly. And the $ amount is all relative.

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Then this is not VP$IP.

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Best Wishes

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ditto

[SGspecial]

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It isn't impossible to win over 3k hands with a VP$IP of 70%. Back in the days of being a total poker idiot(note that I am much better now) I ran up a nice bankrole playing limit holdem this way. Once things turned south it took me less than two days to give it all back.

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I think this thread is overlooking the 800 lb gorilla in the corner. While everyone is trying to figure out if ANY + winrate is sustainable with 70% vpip, and if 3k hands is a big enough sample to determine this, they are using their own results and opponents as the frame of reference. First, if OP is playing 70% of all hands, then he's actually participating in twice as many hands as someone playing at 35% and 3x as many as a tight player with 23% vpip. So if you want to ascribe statistical significance to his 3k hand sample, you should be comparing it to a 10k hand sample of a 23% player.

The other problem with the frame of reference being used in this thread is that it ignores the possibility of truly awful opponents, who can't even get good value out of premium hands when they are dealt to them. If poker only had one betting round, it would seem impossible to be a winner with 70% vpip, but if OP is crushing his opponents on later streets then it becomes possible and in fact the most likely explanation.

Lastly, even if OP has a statistically valid positive winrate playing like a "fish", that doesn't imply that he is maximizing his EV that way. He might reap a lot more profit by playing at 50% and maybe the optimal point would be 40% in the weak/loose games he's playing. In that case it would be worth his effort to reform his play, assuming that he really cares about maximizing his profit and not just having fun [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[RustyBrooks]

The thing that screams "variance" and not "he's outplaying his opponents" is his showdown rate - he sees 41% of all rivers, and wins an awful lot of them (45%). Seeing that many rivers makes me think that it's not a matter of him judging when his hand is good, making better decisions etc.

The posted hands he showed do not change my opinion of that, either.

[SGspecial]

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The thing that screams "variance" and not "he's outplaying his opponents" is his showdown rate - he sees 41% of all rivers, and wins an awful lot of them (45%). Seeing that many rivers makes me think that it's not a matter of him judging when his hand is good, making better decisions etc.

The posted hands he showed do not change my opinion of that, either.

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I'm not saying it's impossible that OP's profit is from variance. I'm just saying that the standard tools everyone here uses to measure whether it's possible for it to be a sustainable winrate may not be accurate in this case.

[Poker CPA]

Excellent work SG

7csCB

Variance, Variance but no supporting PT data. NICE
Read the Horse Race Concept about reversing issues.
Every stud game has VPIP.

To everyone, the following:

Could the average 2 plus 2er win in a very loose passive 1/2 game with a .10 ante, with the only requirement being his VPIP be no less than 70%?????? Say over 100K hands with the same 100 or so players. I could beat it. Could you????? Why or why not????

[7csCB]

Yes, I understand the horse race concept.

Umm...you could beat the 1/2 game playing with VP$IP of 70%.

I would not be able to.

OK...here goes:

I challenge you to sit at a 1/2 table on Stars and do it.

I'd be happy to sit in.

cheers

[Poker CPA]

7csCB

This is a mental exercise in stud, kinda like a Midnight BS session. A debate. No one is going to play 100K hands to prove anything. Your challenge misses the point, so to get back on board. Be the first to explain why you can't do it. Show so balls.

The HRC paragraph 4 (maybe 5), top of 2nd page. First sentence.

[lstream]

Definition: An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an on-line community such as an on-line discussion forum or group with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response.

I think its clear what we are dealing with here. Probably a uber troll that also fabricates persona's like high rolling country club poker kings.

Maybe we should stop feeding the little beast.

[Andy B]

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Maybe we should stop feeding the little beast.

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That was going to be my suggestion. I'm sorry I got sucked into this one.

I'll just point out that, as far as I know, I don't have a "boss" when it comes to moderating this forum, and if I did, it ain't David Sklansky. Mat is the primary administrator, and I ask him for guidance a few times a year. Ultimately, Mason calls the shots, of course, but I think my last contact with him was over two years ago. Obviously, if I piss any of these people off sufficiently, I'll be out of a "job."

This thread is close to being locked.

[SGspecial]

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This thread is close to being locked.

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Sounds like Andy is the real boss around here [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]