My stats

[Poker CPA]

I quess it depends on how good your "quess" is???????? The fact is he made money over 3000 hands. The closest I have in my database is 226 hands at 70%. And having the right game plan is very important. But a "guess" can be good I suppose, but never tried it.

[7csCB]

Poker_CPA, *TT*,

This is a level, right?

OP's numbers are just too high.

I'm looking at actual "Plrs/4th" numbers on Pokerstars and OP's are generally higher.
Given
Plrs/4th = VP$IP + BI seeing 4th for free,
it follows he's looser than these tables.

re.:
"70% is outstanding if everyone else is 95%."
2 things:
1- I defy you to find a table that is consistently VP$IP = 95%. There are obvious differences in strength between levels but even the lowest stakes play better than this. CPA, I believe your characterization of your poker buddies is an exaggeration for effect.
2- OP's VP$IP is terrible. I would guess this is even too high if you could see hole cards.

BTW, 3000 hands is insignificant given the greater variance
associated with these loosest of tables.

cheers

[Poker CPA]

7csCB

Point 1: I agree with you, a winning 70% doesn't make sense, but it happened. Why??????????

Point 2: As far as I can see, the 95% is the only logical explanation. Its impossible what he did, yet he did it.

Point 3. Do you have any PT data backing up your statement??? "BTW, 3000 hands is insignificant given the greater variance associated with these loosest of tables."
I don't play these levels but maybe you do.

Point 4: When involved in such games one MUST reverse strategies. Its as simple as that or if you like, make adjustments.

Point 5: What has been your experience with non-rake games in your social circles??????????? It is common for friendly games to see 4th or the flop blindly. And the $ amount is all relative.

Best Wishes

[RustyBrooks]

I have plenty of data to back up the idea that 3k hands is not a significant sample. If you want I can probably find a dozen cases where a player won wildly for 3k or more hands, and then lost wildly for a similar amount or longer (and also, the reverse).

And as I mentioned, I am (well, WAS) beating stud/8 for 10bb/100 over 2k hands. This is totally meaningless, today I am getting slaughtered and my bb/100 is now probably like 5bb/100, soon to fall to below 0.

Think of it this way. Running at 10bb/100 for 3k hands nets you 300bb. You've never heard of a 300bb upswing or downswing? I've experienced a couple of each.

I'm not even saying that with his stats he must be a losing player, although I find it very hard to believe he'll sustain a positive win rate at these stakes. Actually, is the lowest stake so low that it's unraked? I remember UB had some unraked stakes.

[Poker CPA]

BTW 7 DS agrees with Point 4. Ask Truth or do some research.

[RustyBrooks]

What is 7 DS?

[Poker CPA]

Rusty;

Are you playing at 70%????????????? Of course not!!!!!! Its not the 10BB, its the 70%.

Running at 70% for 3K and winning 10BB is impossible. Review your PT stats for a winning 70%er. Does anyone have a winning 70%er over 3K???? The closest I came was like 200 some hands and I have over 5 million hands.

[Poker CPA]

7 is 7csCB and DS is Andy's boss

[BH2O]

It isn't impossible to win over 3k hands with a VP$IP of 70%. Back in the days of being a total poker idiot(note that I am much better now) I ran up a nice bankrole playing limit holdem this way. Once things turned south it took me less than two days to give it all back.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
Rusty;

Are you playing at 70%????????????? Of course not!!!!!! Its not the 10BB, its the 70%.

Running at 70% for 3K and winning 10BB is impossible. Review your PT stats for a winning 70%er. Does anyone have a winning 70%er over 3K???? The closest I came was like 200 some hands and I have over 5 million hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Closest I found with a search for greater than 1000 hands and greater than 60%VPIP:
10 players fit the criteria. They are all red except 1 who was at .32 BB/100 even though he was a money loser - that was with a 61 VPIP over 1070 hands. 7 of the 10 were huge money losers, from $1-9 thousand over no more than 3,330 hands (I miss stylesh).

However, one player from my crypto days had an 80.22 VPIP over 1,380 hands at 5/10 pound stakes with a 2.82 BB/100. At all stakes though he was (12.37) BB/100!

The only conclusion based even on that small sample is that OP is a statistical anomoly.