40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

[David Sklansky]

If you randomly choose a present day 40 year old American and a present day 65 year old, who is more likely to reach 90?

[POKEROMGLOL]

ill answer if you rate my dinner david

[David Sklansky]

You cooked me dinner?

[POKEROMGLOL]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post13180492

[kevin017]

these seem about equal, perhaps a small edge to the 65 year old.

[ut2010]

ugh not health and fitness too.

[KingGordy]

I choose the 65 year old.

[AZK]

40

[Yobz]

Would answers change if you say 20 year old versus 65 year old?

Clearly this boils down to one thing:
Probability of dying between the ages of 40 and 65 versus the medical advancements made in 25 years.

I'll take medical advancements in 25 years, I think the probability of dying b/w 40 and 65 is pretty small.

I'll way favor 20 in a 20 vs 65 to reach 90.

[Wolfram]

I imagine this could be solved mathematically.

Let f(x) be a function of the average life expectancy of an american male, where x is the year.

Let g(x) be the death rate for american males in one year where x is the age.

Find out where the two functions intersect. If it's > 40 years then you chose the 65 year old.

This is probably wrong and oversimplified but someone who's better at math should be able to solve this.