when do I dump this dog?

[JMa]

this is a situation that arises a couple times every session. you start out w/ a mediocre hand and improve it on 4th/5th but your opp makes larger improvements. the whole hand feels really awkward.

this is HU and opp have dropped 25BB so far. the game is pretty loose, eps his standards. can i drop this on 5th?

Razz (2/4), Ante 0.40, Bring-In 0.50 (converter)

Hero: 140.20
Seat 2: 990.80

3rd Street - (0.40 SB)

Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___completes

4th Street - (2.40 SB)

Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.20 BB)

Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (4.20 BB)

Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (4.20 BB - 16.80)

[Beavis68]

3rd

[djk123]

3rd. If you misclick 3rd, fold 4th. If you misclick 4th, fold 5th.

[Jigsaws]

3rd is marginal. I call 4th if I call 3rd. Definitely fold 5th.

[Micturition Man]

Never. You are in good shape versus his distribution here.

(He started with random holecards people.)

[buzzard1881]

heads up, calling with T72 against a possible steal isnt a terrible play, its probably the worst hand I'd defend with, but still not terrible, but if you call this on 5th, you have to call this down on 6th and all the way to 7th. You played it fine until you folded 6th street. I mean why did you fold there if you are calling on 5th. You are assuming on 6th he has a pretty good 7 or 6, but on 5th steet you think your ten with an 8 redraw is good? I just dont understand that thinking

[Jigsaws]

[ QUOTE ]
Never. You are in good shape versus his distribution here.

(He started with random holecards people.)

[/ QUOTE ]
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
72T68 47.79% 286,651 202
**65A 52.21% 313,147 202

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

[buzzard1881]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Never. You are in good shape versus his distribution here.

(He started with random holecards people.)

[/ QUOTE ]
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
72T68 47.79% 286,651 202
**65A 52.21% 313,147 202

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

[/ QUOTE ]

With the odds you are getting, its probably smart to see a 6th, assuming he has bad hole cards, and hope to see his board pair or it come jack higher. if it comes 8 or lower, then you are safe to chuck it away. As played call 5th, then 6th, then 7th.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]

Never. You are in good shape versus his distribution here.

(He started with random holecards people.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are we assuming he is raising 100% here?

[Foucault]

Villain ought to be raising damn near 100% of the time on 3rd, so I don't see how folding T72 could be correct. I like peeling fourth also. When he keeps firing on 5th, I think you can narrow his hole cards to a range substantially stronger than random. Combined with the fact that he's consistently caught better than you and is generally going to make better decisions than you on subsequent streets, 5th is the time to dump, in my opinion. If he really is so aggro that he could still have any two in the hole even though you're calling down and catching reasonably well, then I could see calling 5th, but I'd be surprised if that's true.