AA vs TAG

[Kimpan]

22/16/2

Can I get away from this on this board?
Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $111.49
BB: $72.06
Hero (UTG): $117.59
MP: $142.50
CO: $106.61
BTN: $93.88

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $4.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $22.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $75.00</font>, BTN calls all-in for $67.88, Hero calls $14.88

Turn: ($189.26) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($189.26) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $189.26 ($3.50 Rake)

[vhawk01]

Nope.

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I get away from this on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't, because I know that I would raise with position on this board with all sorts of hands.

Having some reads on villain would definitely help, though.

[Kimpan]

just feels like I'm up against a set or QJ like 100% here.
I guess we need to raise to keep drawinghands from getting a freecard...

[Michaelson]

I've re-thought this hand a bit. The problem with this flop is it connects with so much of a button's calling range. Usually on coordinated boards you have to push here to get value from/price out fast playing draws which will be a large part of villain's range. But there's a big difference between a flop like this and a flop like 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] where hands that will give us action are draws a much greater percentage of the time than they are made hands. On the board presented in the OP, otoh, there are a bunch of draws that could play like this, but there are also a lot of hands that are already there and have us drawing.

With that said, plug a pretty unfavourable range into pokertracker and hero still has decent equity:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72,270 games 0.005 secs 14,454,000 games/sec

Board: Th 9d 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.859% 40.58% 01.28% 29325 926.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 58.141% 56.86% 01.28% 41092 926.50 { TT-88, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QJs, T9s, 98s, AJo, KQo, QJo, T9o, 98o }

Throw in a couple of random straight/flush draws that are getting frisky and this seems pretty straightforward.