2nd nuts on river vs nit...how much to bet?

MrTimCaum · #1 10-23-2006, 09:44 PM

2nd hour of the ftp $163. villain is like 12/5/2 over about 200 hands I have with him...the only hand I've seen him show down was early on in the 25/50. he came to the table with about 7k chips...3 limp in, sb completes, he checks QQ in the BB. flop was K53r checked around, turn was something like an 8, the SB bets 100, he calls, utg calls. river is a 7, sb checks, he checks, utg bets 300 and he calls, losing to 77. other than that, i haven't seen him show down anything.

now here's our hand:

Full Tilt Poker Game #1140284000: $22,000 Guarantee (7417839), Table 23 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:27:06 ET - 2006/10/23
Seat 1: Yankees31 (3,975) -SB
Seat 2: spike-hyzer (9,312) -BB
Seat 3: jaws2481 (3,630) - Villain
Seat 7: MrTimCaum (4,370) - me
Seat 8: boocks (2,165) - CO
Seat 9: NLBrewZ (7,810) - button
Yankees31 posts the small blind of 60
spike-hyzer posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrTimCaum [Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 raises to 360
-3 folds-
MrTimCaum calls 360
-everyone else folds)
*** FLOP *** [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 bets 480
MrTimCaum calls 480
*** TURN *** [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 checks

-here I'm feeling like he's got AK or TT and is shutting down, so let's give him a look at the river and hope he improves.

MrTimCaum checks
*** RIVER *** [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] [5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 checks

-ok, he's checked again, he's probably missed with AK or has a lower PP that has given up. what's the best bet to get value out of my hand here? pot size is 1860, he's got 2600ish left.

MrTimCaum?

FortunaMaximus · #2 10-23-2006, 09:53 PM

There needs to be a daily forum posting limit.

Anyway, 850. It'll get enough calls out of PP's, an nit's never calling with AK here. There's the possibility that he's betting JJ and going for a c/r on the turn. Depends on how creative he can get. If that's the case, you'll get some raises out of that and can put him AI.

Yeah, it's probably an underbet, and you're not gonna get the TT calls you want, but if it's KK-AA, with your position, you'll get a slightly higher frequency of calls than you would OOP.

Depends on his read of your image though.

MrTimCaum · #3 10-23-2006, 09:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There needs to be a daily forum posting limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

anyway, since you mentioned my image, I should add that I'm probably viewed as tight. I think the only hand I showed down was calling a moron limp-reraise all in with JJ, he had 66 and I stacked him, late in the 25/50 level.

Bullet_Dodger · #4 10-23-2006, 09:58 PM

MrTimCaum,

he obviously seems like an extremley nitty player. 12/5/2, and he checked QQ in the BB in an earlier hand.

on the flop, i have trouble believing he would make a cont. bet with AK, and I think he'd check TT here as well. Given the flop bet and the UTG raise preflop, I would think he'd have AJ,JJ,KK, or AA, with a slight chance of something less.

Now he's checked the turn with the Q hitting, which is a little puzzling. All of the 4 hands I mentioned plus others are still possible, but this really looks like a line AJ would take. your play is fine, and so is a bet.

on the river he checks again, which makes me less believe JJ,AA, or KK, although they're still possible. i gotta believe its most likley AJ, although AK, TT+ are all possible. I'd make it 1.5k, and hope he decides to commit the rest of his chips.

Colombo · #5 10-23-2006, 10:00 PM

I think you could avoid asking this question if you built the pot sooner.

I like a raise preflop, but I suppose a case could be made for just calling (being that he folds almost everything besides AA/KK/AK).

I'm gonna bet this turn though, at least just give him odds to draw instead of just checking. It'll increase the pot and make a river all-in very smooth. Anyway, I'm betting 600-750 and pushing the river.

FortunaMaximus · #6 10-23-2006, 10:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There needs to be a daily forum posting limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

anyway, since you mentioned my image, I should add that I'm probably viewed as tight. I think the only hand I showed down was calling a moron limp-reraise all in with JJ, he had 66 and I stacked him, late in the 25/50 level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not you, me. Overactive some days.

Anyway, the underbet gives him a chance to raise insead of call. If you're tight and cold-called flop, he's gonna put you on strength, probably AA-KK with those relative stacks, and unless he's got AA, he's not gonna raise. If he's got KK, he's still going to make a cryin' call often. So the 1.5k is a good price.

The underbet can be an induce, get him to raise it, and you 3-bet that, and he's gonna be priced in to call, since he's got the larger stack.

Is KK-AA simply cold-calling that board on river for a 850 bet? It ain't folding, it might raise, it might call.

And that's so FPS I don't even think it's good advice. Sorry.

adanthar · #7 10-23-2006, 10:34 PM

He doesn't have AA-KK here except once in a blue moon. Even nits aren't that scared on low paired boards.

I dunno, you can either bet 500 that AK will call, bet 1K that AJ might call, or just shove and hope he calls with whatever. I vote shove solely because FT is weird but 1K might be better.

registrar · #8 10-24-2006, 05:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
2nd hour of the ftp $163. villain is like 12/5/2 over about 200 hands I have with him...the only hand I've seen him show down was early on in the 25/50. he came to the table with about 7k chips...3 limp in, sb completes, he checks QQ in the BB. flop was K53r checked around, turn was something like an 8, the SB bets 100, he calls, utg calls. river is a 7, sb checks, he checks, utg bets 300 and he calls, losing to 77. other than that, i haven't seen him show down anything.

now here's our hand:

Full Tilt Poker Game #1140284000: $22,000 Guarantee (7417839), Table 23 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:27:06 ET - 2006/10/23
Seat 1: Yankees31 (3,975) -SB
Seat 2: spike-hyzer (9,312) -BB
Seat 3: jaws2481 (3,630) - Villain
Seat 7: MrTimCaum (4,370) - me
Seat 8: boocks (2,165) - CO
Seat 9: NLBrewZ (7,810) - button
Yankees31 posts the small blind of 60
spike-hyzer posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrTimCaum [Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 raises to 360
-3 folds-
MrTimCaum calls 360
-everyone else folds)
*** FLOP *** [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 bets 480
MrTimCaum calls 480
*** TURN *** [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 checks

-here I'm feeling like he's got AK or TT and is shutting down, so let's give him a look at the river and hope he improves.

MrTimCaum checks
*** RIVER *** [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] [5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
jaws2481 checks

-ok, he's checked again, he's probably missed with AK or has a lower PP that has given up. what's the best bet to get value out of my hand here? pot size is 1860, he's got 2600ish left.

MrTimCaum?

[/ QUOTE ]

OK so with a jack/smaller he calls a smallish bet and I'd bet enough to leave him with more than 2000 chips, with a seven or JJ it's all you can eat but he'll most likely come over the top so I don't think there's much value in pushing against an opponent who probably isn't minded to play sheriff with two pair.

Personally, with your read, I'd bet the turn small. He can't fold 10s, AK, AQ or AJ there and this gives you the chance to stack him if he hits on the river.

Soulman · #9 10-24-2006, 06:01 AM

ohhh registrar, you're so wise!
<font color="white"> not really sarcastic either </font>

registrar · #10 10-24-2006, 06:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
ohhh registrar, you're so wise!
<font color="white"> not really sarcastic either </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I love the internet. Seke said I was disciplined and here's you saying I'm wise. That's got to be just about the two most inappropriate epithets that could be applied but it's made my day.