AQ top pair anc can't fold

[Womble]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $98.30
UTG+1: $83
CO: $76.67
Button: $103.46
SB: $87.01
BB: $100

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($9, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $26</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($61, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $10</font>, Hero calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($81, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $20</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $121

What am I to make of the flop raise here. In limit, a raise is easily a Q. The other bets were quite weak which is why I called down.

[sluggger5x]

Fold the flop, and definately fold the river. I think we're very likely up agianst AA or KK here. In my experience, alot of players like to smooth call AA/KK preflop just so they can trap you on a flop like this. AK of hearts is also a possibility though. Personally I dont like to call down to the river with TPTK and massive striaght and flush draws.

[BalugaWhale]

does this really look that bad to people? It doesn't look so bad to me.

[jjigglers]

The flop is the worst.

[caz]

I'm leaning towards a fold with the flop raise but I'm definetly calling the tiny turn/river bets.

Anyone else want to raise the turn and check behind on the river if its called (fold to a 3 bet)?

[big dummy]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyone else want to raise the turn and check behind on the river if its called (fold to a 3 bet)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise on turn would need to be at least to $40 (or maybe $50) to have any FE, in which case you've committed 70%-80% of your stack to TPTK.

With no reads I'd fold to the flop raise. But calling turn seems much better than raising.

[cbloom]

Definitely fold the flop without reads. Otherwise looks fine.

[Pokey]

Time for some crazy talk: did you consider raising the turn?

Check it out: the player raises the flop big -- excessively big, to be precise. Sure, we know it's only a 2/3rds pot bet, but for most people that's a big overbet. This looks to me like a bet that doesn't want to be called.

Now, on the turn, he bets VERY small. This stinks of a heart flush draw, desperately trying for a free card. I think if you pop him back for $50, you win the pot on the turn VERY often. If not, it's the last money I throw into the pot.

Risky strategy? Sure. But it only has to work 42% of the time to be profitable, and even if it doesn't you're likely to get a free card on the river so that you can see the showdown with a hand that has some value. The total cost to you is not that high, and the chance to pick it up immediately makes this a +EV move in my book against most opponents.

[big dummy]

[ QUOTE ]
Time for some crazy talk: did you consider raising the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a read that you won't call such a big raise with a FD, then he could be value betting the turn and river. That would put him on a set, overpair, or even 2 pr (QJ), all of which beat you and none of which are folding to a push.

Given all the action, I'd expect to see QJ quite often here. $20 is a confident value bet.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
Given all the action, I'd expect to see QJ quite often here. $20 is a confident value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasn't $20, it was $10. For most players, $10 into a $61 pot is NOT a confident value bet.