OC and possible filled straight on river

[calidris]

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ?

No reads on any opponent but both seems too loose preflop and has limped Ax, Qxs, etc. Nothing remarkable observed in their postflop play.

[Dankenstein]

I bet/fold this river.

[bozlax]

What's your question, cal? "What should I do?" How about you tell us what you think the best line is and why, or at least give us some idea of your thought processes with respect to the various actions, and we'll go from there. Here, I'll get you started:

Should you open-fold? Why?

[calidris]

Ok, we got two opponents who limp from E-MP. To me, that means anything from Ax, small pair or mid suited connector to 2-gapper. They seem quite loose so Kxs is possible I guess.

Flop , I get TP. I bet they call. Turn is a brick and I bet, they call. I now belive they have one of the following:

1. Two overcards
AA-JJ, AK-AJ is unlikely since I think they would raise that some time up to this point. That leaves KQ, KJ, QJ.

2. AT, A9, K9, A6, JT, QT
I don't find it unreasonable that they peel one here with that.

3. 88, 77
A pair and a gutshot.

Since I have an A and a T it's more likely that they have one of the combos that doesn't include those cards:

77, 88, KQ, KJ, QJ, K9
28 combos I beat
48 combos that beat me

Of course there are more possibilities like J8, Q9 etc. but in the heat of battle I'm tanking here and it feels like there's a very slim chance that I'm good here against two people.

So I'm asking, what would you guys do?

[bozlax]

Your thought process is fine right up to the point where you remove any combos that have an ace or ten in them. You've also removed 22-66 for some reason, hands like T8/98/76 (a pair plus), and you don't have any Qx hands except QT, although you say they limp Qxs (Q9 is a possiblity, as is Q8s in any suit that matches the board, etc.).

In short, you seem to be falling victim to one of the Ten Classic Blunders, the most well-known of which is, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slight less important is this: "Don't reduce your opponent's hand-range to only either those hands that you beat or those hands that beat you."

I haven't done a strict analysis on this particular hand, but the fact that you've narrowed it down to where you're nearly a 2:1 underdog on the river is ridonkulous. If you want to say that you're check/calling a) to induce a bluff or b) because they won't call a bet with missed OCs, etc, is one thing; I don't think it's a RIGHT thing, but at least you're not being weak-tight. Saying, "I'm not going to bet because I think there's only a 30% chance I have the best hand," is horribly weak-tight.

[calidris]

Thanx boz for such a full reply. If this was HU I wouldn't hesitate but against two I was hovering above the bet button with a feeling that one of them must have improved to something that beat me.

[neurotiq]

I'd bet this river for value. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]