One more hand...QQ this time

sweetjazz · #1 08-24-2006, 04:33 AM

Same villain as before (28/21/1.9) TAG in the BB.

I open Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the HJ and it is folded to villain in the BB who calls.

Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He checks, I bet, he raises, and I call.

Turn is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He bets, I raise and he calls.

River is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He checks, and I ...

(a) bet/call
(b) bet/fold
(c) check

As usual, comments on all streets appreciated.

helpmeout · #2 08-24-2006, 05:03 AM

I'd probably check without a good read, a lot of hands just hit that river.

___1___ · #3 08-24-2006, 05:07 AM

If opponent is a good TAG I think I like a check. If he has a ten he has to know that he doesn't beat anything now. The only had that might call is AT. I don't think I could call with QT/JT here.

If opponent is a lackluster TAG I think a bet is profitable since any T is calling. Bet/fold.

On this particular board I can't imagine a bluff c/r so bet/call seems bad to me.

___1___

MATT111 · #4 08-24-2006, 06:27 AM

You are ahead of a T here pretty often but I do not see a TAG calling with a single T. Against a thinking non-tilting TAG this is a check unless your table image suggests otherwise.

cartman · #5 08-24-2006, 07:29 AM

I bet/fold and sleep like a baby. There isn't one TAG in 50 who will fold a T there in my opinion.

Burnsabre · #6 08-24-2006, 08:16 AM

This is a definite bet/fold for me... I could imagine him calling with some smaller pairs as well, this the board was has the spazzy bluffin vibe on the flop.

danzasmack · #7 08-24-2006, 09:51 AM

I guess I chop TAGs in my brain up into good/thinking TAGs and the rest. Against the rest I bet. A good, thinking TAG, i check.

If i just made my hand I would expect you to value bet whatever you raised on the turn and would go for a c/r.

Hoi Polloi · #8 08-24-2006, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably check without a good read, a lot of hands just hit that river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd check with a read. Otherwise, I think you give up too much not to bet/fold this against most TAGs.

There are 8BB in the pot after the turn. If 1 time out of 8 a bluff pushes you off the winner you break even not counting the extra bets you win on the river. So, if this opponent is capable of that many c/r bluffs on this board you should check, but that seems like a lot of bluffs to me.

Surf · #9 08-24-2006, 12:15 PM

IMO, Bet-fold > check > bet-call.

You've got plenty of value from Tx and even some hands like 98 that picked up showdown value on the turn... especially if this hand occured after the AQ hand, in which case he'll be suspicious of this line knowing you just used it with a semi-strong hand so you might be trying to semibluff/rebluff him.

Also, he just saw you check a medium strength hand on the river so he may think your river bets are a bit more polarized between good hands and bluffs, though if he's a decent hand reader there should be virtually nothing he's ahead of by this river card that won't stop them from calling, in my experience.

That said, I don't think we have to call a c/r here because when we raise the turn our hand range is wide, anything from semibluffs(1crd FD or oesd) to strong 1pr hands to trips to full houses. With this river card I don't think he'll try a bluff c/r much since he won't be able to expect us to fold very many hands, and a value c-r is definitely ahead of us since he's not afraid of trips at the least.

Surf

Moneyline · #10 08-24-2006, 12:56 PM

I'm normally not a big fan of bet/folding on the river, but in this instance I think that is your best option. Your opponent will likely call you with a T or perhaps a 9 if he was making a move at you on the flop with a gutterball draw. If your opponent raises I think it is very unlikely that he is on a bluff on such a scary board, so you can safely fold.

Just my opinion...