Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?

Entity · #1 08-21-2006, 03:32 AM

Villain is a 28/22/2.5 TAG, capable of a fair amount of aggression postflop. I think he's capable of raising this flop at times with any pair, any draw, and complete air. FWIW, I could, and would, play KQ exactly like this the times that I dont' 3bet the flop.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks.

River: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero raises...

The Bryce · #2 08-21-2006, 03:35 AM

Or you could just lead the river.

milesdyson · #3 08-21-2006, 03:36 AM

do you think he can fold 54/74 there? it would suck royally to call and be shown JT or another J9.

i dunno, pretty interesting. think he ever bluff 3-bets?

Entity · #4 08-21-2006, 03:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could just lead the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I just get a fold from missed draws, a call from some air hands that think they're good (there will be few of these but they will still happen). I'm not sure why you'd prefer a donk here over a check-call. The only reason I checkraised was it works on both levels; it allows him to bluff if he missed a straight draw, and allows me to win against some of those draws (J9, JT) that I'd chop/lose to.

Rob

Entity · #5 08-21-2006, 03:37 AM

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think he ever bluff 3-bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy? Nah.

veganmav · #6 08-21-2006, 03:42 AM

I love it.
Also, remember that you did it against him and how he reacted so that in the future, you can adjust properly, and use it to your advantage.

The Bryce · #7 08-21-2006, 03:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
it allows him to bluff if he missed a straight draw, and allows me to win against some of those draws (J9, JT) that I'd chop/lose to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad excuses! The value of inducing a bluff is totally written off by the times he checks behind with KQ or something knowing that he has showdown value and you lose the pot. He's not folding a pair often enough for the extra bet to be worth it, and furthermore a TAG with those stats has never put in that flop / turn action combo with a pair in like the history of LHE (unless PP 10 is wierd like that).

Victor · #8 08-21-2006, 03:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could just lead the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

then k high calls.

Entity · #9 08-21-2006, 03:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it allows him to bluff if he missed a straight draw, and allows me to win against some of those draws (J9, JT) that I'd chop/lose to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad excuses! The value of inducing a bluff is totally written off by the times he checks behind with KQ or something knowing that he has showdown value and you lose the pot. He's not folding a pair often enough for the extra bet to be worth it, and furthermore a TAG with those stats has never put in that flop / turn action combo with a pair in like the history of LHE (unless PP 10 is wierd like that).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll post my full thoughts on it later, but I feel like you're misreading the hand or something, because normally your thoughts are pretty good but you're suggesting I should donk so that I can get a few of his draws to fold, but get him to call with any made hand. Or at least it seems to be what you're suggesting. If I had 97, a bet is much better than if I have J9. I think betting here is pretty bad, but I think check-calling, check-raising, and check-folding are all viable lines and I posted this one to see what others thought.

Rob

The Bryce · #10 08-21-2006, 04:20 AM

It's 2AM and the board totally isn't what I thought it was. I still don't expect BB to check behind the turn with anything better than K high with reuglarity (maybe 45). If you check call the distribution will be messed up becaues he sometimes won't bet with his busted draws and you lose to JT and chop with J9, so getting 5:1 now isn't good enough. A check-raise beats these hands and nets you an extra bet when he has one, but letting him decide whether or not to bet may let him check behind and cost you money or may shift his distribution closer to 50/50, where the extra bet doesn't net you anything unless he folds small pairs.

Anyways, there are some conflicting ideas in what I just said (bedtime for me, I think) but to summarize the big condition is that he's betting with a draw about 60% of the time here (him checking behind a draw is kind of bad), and that there's not an even mix of showdownable hands in his range after the turn check. If he'll fold a small pair the c/r is obviously pretty valuable.

SLEEPY CONCLUSION: It looks ok. Go with your gut.